The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

2 venues · 3 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

3 outcomes · $5.2M reported volume

Observed 8m ago

Observed 3m ago

Observed 8m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

1 outcomes · $644K reported volume

Observed 9m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Yes

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.3%

Bid 5.3% · Ask 5.6%

Yes

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 3.2% · Ask 4.0%

Yes

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.7 pp

Before 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 5.2%

Before 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Reza Pahlavi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Reza Pahlavi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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