Market comparison

Virginia Senate margin of victory

2 venues · 23 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $15K reported volume

Observed 56s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

13 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Virginia Senate margin of victory
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.2% Republican 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 0-3% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.3% Democrat 0-3% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 3-6% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.8% Bid 0.7% · Ask 14.9% Democrat 3-6% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 6-9% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.0% Democrat 6-9% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 9-12% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.9% Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.0% Democrat 9-12% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 12-15% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 17.0% Democrat 12-15% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 15-18% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 23.5% Democrat 15-18% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 18-21% Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.9% Bid 16.3% · Ask 17.4% Democrat 18-21% Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Democrat 21%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	55.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 56.0% Democrat 21%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Republican 3%+ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.6% Republican 3%+ Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Warner, 7+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.8% Bid 93.6% · Ask 98.0% Warner, 7+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 9+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.5% Bid 93.1% · Ask 97.9% Warner, 9+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 11+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.0% Bid 91.8% · Ask 98.0% Warner, 11+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 13+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.1% Bid 90.1% · Ask 98.2% Warner, 13+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 15+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	87.0% Bid 87.0% · Ask 97.7% Warner, 15+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 17+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	81.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 91.3% Warner, 17+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 19+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.0% Bid 72.0% · Ask 82.0% Warner, 19+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 21+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	60.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 71.0% Warner, 21+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 23+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0% Warner, 23+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 25+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	36.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 48.0% Warner, 25+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 27+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 30.0% Warner, 27+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 29+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0% Warner, 29+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—
Warner, 31+ pts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.2% Bid 6.3% · Ask 18.0% Warner, 31+ pts Open Kalshi ↗	—

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.2%

Republican 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 0-3%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.3%

Democrat 0-3%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 3-6%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.8%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 14.9%

Democrat 3-6%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 6-9%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.0%

Democrat 6-9%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 9-12%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 5.0%

Democrat 9-12%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 12-15%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 17.0%

Democrat 12-15%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 15-18%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 23.5%

Democrat 15-18%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 18-21%

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

16.9%

Bid 16.3% · Ask 17.4%

Democrat 18-21%

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Democrat 21%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

55.0%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 56.0%

Democrat 21%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Republican 3%+

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.6%

Republican 3%+

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Warner, 7+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.8%

Bid 93.6% · Ask 98.0%

Warner, 7+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 9+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

95.5%

Bid 93.1% · Ask 97.9%

Warner, 9+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 11+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 91.8% · Ask 98.0%

Warner, 11+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 13+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

90.1%

Bid 90.1% · Ask 98.2%

Warner, 13+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 15+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

87.0%

Bid 87.0% · Ask 97.7%

Warner, 15+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 17+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 91.3%

Warner, 17+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 19+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

72.0%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 82.0%

Warner, 19+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 21+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 71.0%

Warner, 21+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 23+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

51.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 60.0%

Warner, 23+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 25+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

36.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 48.0%

Warner, 25+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 27+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 30.0%

Warner, 27+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 29+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 26.0%

Warner, 29+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Warner, 31+ pts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

12.2%

Bid 6.3% · Ask 18.0%

Warner, 31+ pts

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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