Market comparison

What will AMD say during their next earnings call?

2 venues · 27 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

16 outcomes · $9K reported volume

Observed 47s ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 47s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 4, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for What will AMD say during their next earnings call?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
China Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	66.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 69.0% China Open Kalshi ↗	65.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 67.0% China Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Microsoft / Azure Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	81.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 87.0% Microsoft / Azure Open Kalshi ↗	92.5% Bid 91.0% · Ask 94.0% Microsoft / Azure Open Polymarket ↗	11.5 pp
Oracle Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	70.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 70.0% Oracle Open Kalshi ↗	75.5% Bid 73.0% · Ask 78.0% Oracle Open Polymarket ↗	5.5 pp
TSMC Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	20.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 21.0% TSMC Open Kalshi ↗	21.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% TSMC Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Agentic AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 92.0% Agentic AI Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	79.0% Bid 60.1% · Ask 97.8% AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Automotive / Automobile Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	58.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 60.0% Automotive / Automobile Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
CPU 20+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	87.5% Bid 86.0% · Ask 89.0% CPU 20+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Data Center Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.9% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.8% Data Center Open Polymarket ↗	—
Debt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	54.5% Bid 53.0% · Ask 56.0% Debt Open Polymarket ↗	—
Dividend Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.9% Dividend Open Polymarket ↗	—
Export Restriction / Export Control Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 21.0% Export Restriction / Export Control Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Frontier Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	62.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 62.0% Frontier Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Growth 10+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	98.9% Bid 98.1% · Ask 99.6% Growth 10+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Healthcare Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	77.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 77.0% Healthcare Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Helios Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0% Helios Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
HPC / High-Performance Computing Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	65.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 65.0% HPC / High-Performance Computing Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Inference / Inferencing Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0% Inference / Inferencing Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Intel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	28.5% Bid 27.0% · Ask 30.0% Intel Open Polymarket ↗	—
Memory / HBM Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0% Memory / HBM Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Meta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 92.0% Meta Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
No Qualifying Event- Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	49.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 98.9% -No Qualifying Event- Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nvidia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% Nvidia Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
OpenAI / ChatGPT Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	86.0% Bid 86.0% · Ask 94.0% OpenAI / ChatGPT Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Revenue 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	97.4% Bid 95.7% · Ask 99.0% Revenue 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tariff Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 72.0% Tariff Open Polymarket ↗	—
Trump Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	36.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 72.0% Trump Open Polymarket ↗	—

China

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 69.0%

China

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

65.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 67.0%

China

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Microsoft / Azure

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 87.0%

Microsoft / Azure

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

92.5%

Bid 91.0% · Ask 94.0%

Microsoft / Azure

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 11.5 pp

Oracle

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 70.0%

Oracle

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

75.5%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 78.0%

Oracle

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

TSMC

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 21.0%

TSMC

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0%

TSMC

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Agentic AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 88.0% · Ask 92.0%

Agentic AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

79.0%

Bid 60.1% · Ask 97.8%

AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Automotive / Automobile

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

58.0%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 60.0%

Automotive / Automobile

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

CPU 20+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

87.5%

Bid 86.0% · Ask 89.0%

CPU 20+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Data Center

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

98.9%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.8%

Data Center

Open Polymarket ↗

Debt

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

54.5%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 56.0%

Debt

Open Polymarket ↗

Dividend

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.9%

Dividend

Open Polymarket ↗

Export Restriction / Export Control

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 21.0%

Export Restriction / Export Control

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Frontier

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

62.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 62.0%

Frontier

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Growth 10+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

98.9%

Bid 98.1% · Ask 99.6%

Growth 10+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Healthcare

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

77.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 77.0%

Healthcare

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Helios

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0%

Helios

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

HPC / High-Performance Computing

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 65.0%

HPC / High-Performance Computing

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Inference / Inferencing

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0%

Inference / Inferencing

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Intel

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

28.5%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 30.0%

Intel

Open Polymarket ↗

Memory / HBM

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0%

Memory / HBM

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

No Qualifying Event-

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 98.9%

-No Qualifying Event-

Open Polymarket ↗

Nvidia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0%

Nvidia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

OpenAI / ChatGPT

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 86.0% · Ask 94.0%

OpenAI / ChatGPT

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Revenue 15+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

97.4%

Bid 95.7% · Ask 99.0%

Revenue 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Tariff

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

39.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 72.0%

Tariff

Open Polymarket ↗

Trump

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

36.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 72.0%

Trump

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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What will AMD say during their next earnings call?

Kalshi

Polymarket

Known rule differences between venues

China

Kalshi

Polymarket

Microsoft / Azure

Kalshi

Polymarket

Oracle

Kalshi

Polymarket

TSMC

Kalshi

Polymarket

Agentic AI

Kalshi

Polymarket

AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times

Kalshi

Polymarket

Automotive / Automobile

Kalshi

Polymarket

CPU 20+ times

Kalshi

Polymarket

Data Center

Kalshi

Polymarket

Debt

Kalshi

Polymarket

Dividend

Kalshi

Polymarket

Export Restriction / Export Control

Kalshi

Polymarket

Frontier

Kalshi

Polymarket

Growth 10+ times

Kalshi

Polymarket

Healthcare

Kalshi

Polymarket

Helios

Kalshi

Polymarket

HPC / High-Performance Computing

Kalshi

Polymarket

Inference / Inferencing

Kalshi

Polymarket

Intel

Kalshi

Polymarket

Memory / HBM

Kalshi

Polymarket

Meta

Kalshi

Polymarket

No Qualifying Event-

Kalshi

Polymarket

Nvidia

Kalshi

Polymarket

OpenAI / ChatGPT

Kalshi

Polymarket

Revenue 15+ times

Kalshi

Polymarket

Tariff