The Prediction Markets

What will AMD say during their next earnings call?

Starts in 14 hKickoff
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Data Center 98.9%

Next is Growth 10+ times at 98.8%. The venues differ most on Oracle (Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 67%), a 10-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Data Center
98.9%
Polymarket 98.9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
98.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Polymarket
Growth 10+ times
98.8%
Polymarket 98.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Growth 10+ times
Last price
98.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$485
Trade this on Polymarket
Revenue 15+ times
97.3%
Polymarket 97.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Revenue 15+ times
Last price
97.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$485
Trade this on Polymarket
AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times
96.5%
Polymarket 96.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ times
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Helios
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Helios
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Kalshi
Inference / Inferencing
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inference / Inferencing
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Kalshi
Memory / HBM
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Memory / HBM
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
CPU 20+ times
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
CPU 20+ times
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Polymarket
OpenAI / ChatGPT
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI / ChatGPT
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Kalshi
Meta
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 17 more outcomes
Agentic AI
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Agentic AI
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Kalshi
Microsoft / Azure
83%
Polymarket 89%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 81%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft / Azure
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Microsoft / Azure
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Healthcare
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Kalshi
Oracle
72.4%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 67%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oracle
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oracle
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

HPC / High-Performance Computing
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
HPC / High-Performance Computing
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
China
61%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 59%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
China
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$698
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
China
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Frontier
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frontier
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$412
Trade this on Kalshi
Automotive / Automobile
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Automotive / Automobile
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Debt
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Debt
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Polymarket
No Qualifying Event-
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Polymarket
Tariff
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tariff
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Trump
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trump
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Intel
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Intel
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Polymarket
TSMC
21.2%
Polymarket 23%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
TSMC
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
TSMC
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Export Restriction / Export Control
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Export Restriction / Export Control
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$701
Trade this on Kalshi
Nvidia
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Kalshi
Dividend
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dividend
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 1, 2027, 10:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Investor Events
Show full rule comparison
  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 1, 2027, 10:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Data Center
  • Growth 10+ times
  • Revenue 15+ times

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Data Center for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will AMD say during their next earnings call?". Data Center leads at 98.9%. Next is Growth 10+ times at 98.8%. $10K has traded across 27 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of AMD currently scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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