Market comparison

What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?

2 venues · 65 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

47 outcomes · $76K reported volume

Observed 34s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 29, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

20 outcomes · $4K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 28, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Good Afternoon Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	9.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0% Good Afternoon Open Kalshi ↗	6.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0% Good Afternoon Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Good Day Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	92.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 97.0% Good Day Open Kalshi ↗	94.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 95.0% Good Day Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
ADP Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% ADP Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
AI / Artificial Intelligence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 83.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	45.5% Bid 40.0% · Ask 51.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Anchor / Anchored Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	53.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 53.0% Anchor / Anchored Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Balance Sheet Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	63.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 69.0% Balance Sheet Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bitcoin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Bitcoin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
CapEx / Capital Expenditure Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	76.5% Bid 71.0% · Ask 82.0% CapEx / Capital Expenditure Open Polymarket ↗	—
Central Bank Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 96.0% Central Bank Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Commodity Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	39.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 43.0% Commodity Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Conflict / Middle East Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 74.0% Conflict / Middle East Open Polymarket ↗	—
Consumer Confidence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% Consumer Confidence Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Credit Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	54.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 54.0% Credit Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Crypto / Cryptocurrency Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Diesel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0% Diesel Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dissent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0% Dissent Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dollar Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	38.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 44.0% Dollar Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Egg Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Egg Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Event does not qualify Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Event does not qualify Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Family Fight / Family Feud Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	38.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 42.0% Family Fight / Family Feud Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 23.0% Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Geopolitical Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	61.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 61.0% Geopolitical Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gold Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Gold Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0% Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Polymarket ↗	—
Good Question Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	93.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 94.0% Good Question Open Polymarket ↗	—
Independent / Independence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	70.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 70.0% Independent / Independence Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Inflation 20+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	47.5% Bid 41.0% · Ask 54.0% Inflation 20+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Inflation Expectation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	65.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 65.0% Inflation Expectation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Iran Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0% Iran Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Japan / Japanese / Yen Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Japan / Japanese / Yen Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
National Debt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% National Debt Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
No Qualifying Event- Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% -No Qualifying Event- Open Polymarket ↗	—
Oil Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	60.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 60.0% Oil Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	84.5% Bid 80.0% · Ask 89.0% Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas Open Polymarket ↗	—
Oversight Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 28.0% Oversight Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pandemic Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 33.0% Pandemic Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Pandemic / Recession Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	32.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 38.0% Pandemic / Recession Open Polymarket ↗	—
Payroll Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	34.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 40.0% Payroll Open Polymarket ↗	—
President Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	59.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 59.0% President Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
President / Trump Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	65.5% Bid 60.0% · Ask 71.0% President / Trump Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pressure / Stagflation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	75.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 82.0% Pressure / Stagflation Open Polymarket ↗	—
Price 30+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 71.0% Price 30+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Probability Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% Probability Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Productivity Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	80.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 82.0% Productivity Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Projection Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 37.0% Projection Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
QE / Quantitative Easing Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0% QE / Quantitative Easing Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
QT / Quantitative Tightening Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0% QT / Quantitative Tightening Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Recession Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0% Recession Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Renovation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Renovation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Restrictive Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 82.0% Restrictive Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Risk Management Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% Risk Management Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shock Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	80.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 81.0% Shock Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shutdown / Shut Down Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0% Shutdown / Shut Down Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
SI / Super Intelligence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	38.0% Bid 35.0% · Ask 41.0% SI / Super Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	—
Soft / Softening Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 32.0% Soft / Softening Open Polymarket ↗	—
Softening Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 22.0% Softening Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Software Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 28.0% Software Open Polymarket ↗	—
Stagflation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Stagflation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tax Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0% Tax Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Trump Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% Trump Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Uncertainty Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	73.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 75.0% Uncertainty Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Unchanged Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	32.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 32.0% Unchanged Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Unchanged / Dissent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 29.0% Unchanged / Dissent Open Polymarket ↗	—
Volatility Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0% Volatility Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Good Afternoon

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0%

Good Afternoon

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

6.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0%

Good Afternoon

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Good Day

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 97.0%

Good Day

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

94.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 95.0%

Good Day

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

ADP

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

ADP

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 83.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

45.5%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 51.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Anchor / Anchored

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

53.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 53.0%

Anchor / Anchored

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Balance Sheet

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

63.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 69.0%

Balance Sheet

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Bitcoin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Bitcoin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

CapEx / Capital Expenditure

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

76.5%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 82.0%

CapEx / Capital Expenditure

Open Polymarket ↗

Central Bank

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 96.0%

Central Bank

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Commodity

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

39.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 43.0%

Commodity

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Conflict / Middle East

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

70.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 74.0%

Conflict / Middle East

Open Polymarket ↗

Consumer Confidence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0%

Consumer Confidence

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Credit

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

54.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 54.0%

Credit

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Diesel

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0%

Diesel

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dissent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 11.0%

Dissent

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dollar

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

38.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 44.0%

Dollar

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Egg

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Egg

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Event does not qualify

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Event does not qualify

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Family Fight / Family Feud

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

38.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 42.0%

Family Fight / Family Feud

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 23.0%

Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Geopolitical

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

61.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 61.0%

Geopolitical

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Gold

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Gold

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0%

Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Open Polymarket ↗

Good Question

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

93.0%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 94.0%

Good Question

Open Polymarket ↗

Independent / Independence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 70.0%

Independent / Independence

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Inflation 20+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

47.5%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 54.0%

Inflation 20+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Inflation Expectation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 65.0%

Inflation Expectation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Iran

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0%

Iran

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Japan / Japanese / Yen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Japan / Japanese / Yen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

National Debt

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

National Debt

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

No Qualifying Event-

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

-No Qualifying Event-

Open Polymarket ↗

Oil

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 60.0%

Oil

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

84.5%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 89.0%

Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas

Open Polymarket ↗

Oversight

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 28.0%

Oversight

Open Polymarket ↗

Pandemic

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 33.0%

Pandemic

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Pandemic / Recession

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

32.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 38.0%

Pandemic / Recession

Open Polymarket ↗

Payroll

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

34.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 40.0%

Payroll

Open Polymarket ↗

President

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

59.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 59.0%

President

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

President / Trump

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

65.5%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 71.0%

President / Trump

Open Polymarket ↗

Pressure / Stagflation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

75.0%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 82.0%

Pressure / Stagflation

Open Polymarket ↗

Price 30+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

66.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 71.0%

Price 30+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Probability

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

Probability

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Productivity

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 82.0%

Productivity

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Projection

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 37.0%

Projection

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

QE / Quantitative Easing

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0%

QE / Quantitative Easing

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

QT / Quantitative Tightening

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0%

QT / Quantitative Tightening

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Recession

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0%

Recession

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Renovation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Renovation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Restrictive

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 82.0%

Restrictive

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Risk Management

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

Risk Management

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shock

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 81.0%

Shock

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Shutdown / Shut Down

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0%

Shutdown / Shut Down

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

SI / Super Intelligence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

38.0%

Bid 35.0% · Ask 41.0%

SI / Super Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Soft / Softening

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 32.0%

Soft / Softening

Open Polymarket ↗

Softening

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 22.0%

Softening

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Software

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 28.0%

Software

Open Polymarket ↗

Stagflation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Stagflation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tax

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0%

Tax

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Trump

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

Trump

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Uncertainty

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

73.0%

Bid 73.0% · Ask 75.0%

Uncertainty

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Unchanged

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

32.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 32.0%

Unchanged

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Unchanged / Dissent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 29.0%

Unchanged / Dissent

Open Polymarket ↗

Volatility

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0%

Volatility

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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