Market comparison

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Florida?

2 venues · 47 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

31 outcomes · $120K reported volume

Observed 13s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 6, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

21 outcomes · $6K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 23, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Florida?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
AI / Artificial Intelligence Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Kalshi ↗	24.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Data Center Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	27.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0% Data Center Open Kalshi ↗	27.5% Bid 27.0% · Ask 28.0% Data Center Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Drill Baby Drill Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Kalshi ↗	23.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 25.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Iran (5+ times) Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	76.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 78.0% Iran (5+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	66.5% Bid 44.0% · Ask 89.0% Iran 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	9.5 pp
Russia / Ukraine Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	82.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 83.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Kalshi ↗	82.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 84.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Polymarket ↗	0.0 pp
America First Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	65.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 65.0% America First Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ass Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	48.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 53.0% Ass Open Polymarket ↗	—
Barack Hussein Obama Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	85.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 86.0% Barack Hussein Obama Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.3% Bid 0.7% · Ask 3.8% Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Polymarket ↗	—
Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	62.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 62.0% Blockade Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ceasefire Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Ceasefire Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	91.0% Bid 91.0% · Ask 92.0% Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Crypto / Bitcoin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Crypto / Bitcoin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Democrat 5+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 97.0% Democrat 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Deport / Deported / Deportation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 12.0% Deport / Deported / Deportation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dividend / Stimulus Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0% Dividend / Stimulus Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Event does not qualify Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Event does not qualify Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% Fentanyl Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 27.0% Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Open Polymarket ↗	—
Filibuster Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	13.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% Filibuster Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fish / Fisher / Fishing Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 87.0% Fish / Fisher / Fishing Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fraud (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% Fraud (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gulf of America Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	86.0% Bid 85.0% · Ask 86.0% Gulf of America Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hell 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	56.5% Bid 52.0% · Ask 61.0% Hell 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hormuz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	72.0% Bid 72.0% · Ask 73.0% Hormuz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hormuz / Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	71.5% Bid 54.0% · Ask 89.0% Hormuz / Blockade Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hottest Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 90.0% Hottest Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hurricane Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	60.0% Bid 57.0% · Ask 60.0% Hurricane Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Insurance Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0% Insurance Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Israel / Israeli Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.0% Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0% Israel / Israeli Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jacksonville Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 43.0% Jacksonville Open Polymarket ↗	—
Kamala Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	79.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0% Kamala Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Made in America / American Made Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	46.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 46.0% Made in America / American Made Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mar-a-Lago / Golf Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 95.0% Mar-a-Lago / Golf Open Polymarket ↗	—
No Qualifying Event- Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2% -No Qualifying Event- Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nuclear (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 89.0% Nuclear (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Peace in the Middle East Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Peace in the Middle East Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Save America Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 97.0% Save America Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
SI / Super Intelligence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	60.0% Bid 57.0% · Ask 63.0% SI / Super Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sleepy Joe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0% Sleepy Joe Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Space / Moon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	76.0% Bid 72.0% · Ask 80.0% Space / Moon Open Polymarket ↗	—
Stock Market Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 95.0% Stock Market Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Supreme Court Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	69.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0% Supreme Court Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tariff 6+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 54.0% Tariff 6+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Transgender Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 99.0% Transgender Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Transgender 5+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	76.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 77.0% Transgender 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Veteran Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 85.0% Veteran Open Polymarket ↗	—

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Data Center

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0%

Data Center

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

27.5%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 28.0%

Data Center

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Drill Baby Drill

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0%

Drill Baby Drill

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

23.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 25.0%

Drill Baby Drill

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Iran (5+ times)

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

76.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 78.0%

Iran (5+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

66.5%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 89.0%

Iran 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 9.5 pp

Russia / Ukraine

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 83.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

82.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 84.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

America First

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 65.0%

America First

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ass

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 53.0%

Ass

Open Polymarket ↗

Barack Hussein Obama

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 86.0%

Barack Hussein Obama

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.3%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 3.8%

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Open Polymarket ↗

Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

62.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 62.0%

Blockade

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ceasefire

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Ceasefire

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

91.0%

Bid 91.0% · Ask 92.0%

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Crypto / Bitcoin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Crypto / Bitcoin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Democrat 5+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

96.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 97.0%

Democrat 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 12.0%

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dividend / Stimulus

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0%

Dividend / Stimulus

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Event does not qualify

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Event does not qualify

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

Fentanyl

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

25.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 27.0%

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Open Polymarket ↗

Filibuster

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

13.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

Filibuster

Open Polymarket ↗

Fish / Fisher / Fishing

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

68.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 87.0%

Fish / Fisher / Fishing

Open Polymarket ↗

Fraud (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0%

Fraud (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Gulf of America

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 85.0% · Ask 86.0%

Gulf of America

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hell 15+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

56.5%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 61.0%

Hell 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Hormuz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

72.0%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 73.0%

Hormuz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hormuz / Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

71.5%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 89.0%

Hormuz / Blockade

Open Polymarket ↗

Hottest

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 90.0%

Hottest

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hurricane

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

60.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 60.0%

Hurricane

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Insurance

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0%

Insurance

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Israel / Israeli

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 26.0% · Ask 27.0%

Israel / Israeli

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jacksonville

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

31.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 43.0%

Jacksonville

Open Polymarket ↗

Kamala

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 79.0%

Kamala

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Made in America / American Made

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

46.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 46.0%

Made in America / American Made

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mar-a-Lago / Golf

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

70.0%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 95.0%

Mar-a-Lago / Golf

Open Polymarket ↗

No Qualifying Event-

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.2%

-No Qualifying Event-

Open Polymarket ↗

Nuclear (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 88.0% · Ask 89.0%

Nuclear (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Peace in the Middle East

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Peace in the Middle East

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Save America Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 97.0%

Save America Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

SI / Super Intelligence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

60.0%

Bid 57.0% · Ask 63.0%

SI / Super Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Sleepy Joe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0%

Sleepy Joe

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Space / Moon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

76.0%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 80.0%

Space / Moon

Open Polymarket ↗

Stock Market

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 95.0%

Stock Market

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Supreme Court

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0%

Supreme Court

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tariff 6+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

51.0%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 54.0%

Tariff 6+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Transgender

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 99.0%

Transgender

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Transgender 5+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

76.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 77.0%

Transgender 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Veteran

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

53.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 85.0%

Veteran

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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