The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Florida?

Starts in 20 hKickoff
Traded
$99K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Transgender 97%

Next is Dividend / Stimulus at 95%. The venues differ most on Drill Baby Drill (Polymarket 32%, Kalshi 37%), a 5.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Transgender
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Transgender
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dividend / Stimulus
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend / Stimulus
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Save America Act
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Save America Act
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5+ times
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5+ times
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Stock Market
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$899
Trade this on Kalshi
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Kalshi
Hottest
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Insurance
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Insurance
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sleepy Joe
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gulf of America
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gulf of America
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 37 more outcomes
Nuclear (3+ times)
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear (3+ times)
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$617
Trade this on Kalshi
Transgender 5+ times
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 5+ times
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
Space / Moon
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Space / Moon
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Polymarket
Barack Hussein Obama
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fish / Fisher / Fishing
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Supreme Court
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Kalshi
SI / Super Intelligence
68.5%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine
65.5%
Polymarket 64%polled, 34s agoKalshi 66%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 63¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 65¢.

Iran (5+ times)
62.1%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 34s agoKalshi 61%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iran 5+ times
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (5+ times)
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 62¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 62¢.

Kamala
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mar-a-Lago / Golf
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Veteran
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Veteran
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hurricane
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hurricane
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hell 15+ times
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Made in America / American Made
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Made in America / American Made
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ass
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
Tariff 6+ times
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tariff 6+ times
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel / Israeli
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormuz / Blockade
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
AI / Artificial Intelligence
39.6%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 34s agoKalshi 39%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 41¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 43¢.

Drill Baby Drill
35.8%
Polymarket 32%polled, 34s agoKalshi 37%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

Blockade
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blockade
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormuz
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormuz
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
31.7%
Polymarket 31%polled, 34s agoKalshi 32%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 29¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 32¢.

Jacksonville
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacksonville
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
America First
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Kalshi
Filibuster
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Deport / Deported / Deportation
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deport / Deported / Deportation
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud (3+ times)
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud (3+ times)
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
No Qualifying Event-
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 23, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes Oct 23, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Transgender
  • Dividend / Stimulus
  • Save America Act

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Transgender for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Florida?". Transgender leads at 97%. Next is Dividend / Stimulus at 95%. $99K has traded across 47 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Fort Myers, Florida on October 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-fort-myers-fl-president-donald-j-trump-djt47) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Florida on October 23, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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