Market comparison

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

2 venues · 48 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $137K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

20 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
AI / Artificial Intelligence Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	27.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 27.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Kalshi ↗	26.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Drill Baby Drill Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	28.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 31.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Kalshi ↗	29.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 37.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Iran (5+ times) Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	67.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 67.0% Iran (5+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	70.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 74.0% Iran 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	3.0 pp
Russia / Ukraine Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	84.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 85.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Kalshi ↗	82.5% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
America First Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	56.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 56.0% America First Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ass Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	49.5% Bid 45.0% · Ask 54.0% Ass Open Polymarket ↗	—
Barack Hussein Obama Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	85.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 85.0% Barack Hussein Obama Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Polymarket ↗	—
Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	76.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 76.0% Blockade Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Border 22+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.5% Bid 49.0% · Ask 54.0% Border 22+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ceasefire Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0% Ceasefire Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 94.0% Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Crime / Criminal 10+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.5% Bid 40.0% · Ask 47.0% Crime / Criminal 10+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Crypto / Bitcoin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Crypto / Bitcoin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Data Center Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	21.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 31.0% Data Center Open Polymarket ↗	—
Deport / Deported / Deportation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0% Deport / Deported / Deportation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dividend / Stimulus Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0% Dividend / Stimulus Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Event does not qualify Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Event does not qualify Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0% Fentanyl Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 28.0% Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Open Polymarket ↗	—
Filibuster Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 46.0% Filibuster Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fraud (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0% Fraud (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gulf of America Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	69.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 69.0% Gulf of America Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hell 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 47.0% · Ask 53.0% Hell 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hormuz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	74.0% Bid 61.0% · Ask 74.0% Hormuz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hormuz / Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	62.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 70.0% Hormuz / Blockade Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hottest Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 95.0% Hottest Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hyundai Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	59.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 61.0% Hyundai Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Israel / Israeli Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	29.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0% Israel / Israeli Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kamala Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	79.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 80.0% Kamala Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Keisha Lance Bottoms Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	78.0% Bid 75.0% · Ask 78.0% Keisha Lance Bottoms Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Laken Riley Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 39.0% Laken Riley Act Open Polymarket ↗	—
Made in America / American Made Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	61.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 61.0% Made in America / American Made Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Marjorie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	35.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 35.0% Marjorie Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	69.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 95.0% Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
No Qualifying Event- Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1% -No Qualifying Event- Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nuclear (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	85.0% Bid 84.0% · Ask 86.0% Nuclear (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Peace in the Middle East Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Peace in the Middle East Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Rigged Election Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 50.0% Rigged Election Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Save America Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0% Save America Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
SI / Super Intelligence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	66.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 70.0% SI / Super Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sleepy Joe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	86.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 86.0% Sleepy Joe Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stock Market Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 94.0% Stock Market Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Supreme Court Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	86.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 87.0% Supreme Court Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tax 33+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	38.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 40.0% Tax 33+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Transgender Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Transgender Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Transgender 7+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 55.0% Transgender 7+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Two Percent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	39.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 48.0% Two Percent Open Polymarket ↗	—

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 27.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Drill Baby Drill

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 31.0%

Drill Baby Drill

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

29.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 37.0%

Drill Baby Drill

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Iran (5+ times)

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 67.0%

Iran (5+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

70.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 74.0%

Iran 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

Russia / Ukraine

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 85.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

82.5%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

America First

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

56.0%

Bid 54.0% · Ask 56.0%

America First

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ass

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

49.5%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 54.0%

Ass

Open Polymarket ↗

Barack Hussein Obama

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 85.0%

Barack Hussein Obama

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Open Polymarket ↗

Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

76.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 76.0%

Blockade

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Border 22+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

51.5%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 54.0%

Border 22+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Ceasefire

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0%

Ceasefire

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 94.0%

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Crime / Criminal 10+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

43.5%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 47.0%

Crime / Criminal 10+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Crypto / Bitcoin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Crypto / Bitcoin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Data Center

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

21.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 31.0%

Data Center

Open Polymarket ↗

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0%

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dividend / Stimulus

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0%

Dividend / Stimulus

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Event does not qualify

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Event does not qualify

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 17.0%

Fentanyl

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 28.0%

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Open Polymarket ↗

Filibuster

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

25.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 46.0%

Filibuster

Open Polymarket ↗

Fraud (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0%

Fraud (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Gulf of America

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 69.0%

Gulf of America

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hell 15+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 47.0% · Ask 53.0%

Hell 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Hormuz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 74.0%

Hormuz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hormuz / Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

62.5%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 70.0%

Hormuz / Blockade

Open Polymarket ↗

Hottest

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 95.0%

Hottest

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hyundai

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

59.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 61.0%

Hyundai

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Israel / Israeli

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

29.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 29.0%

Israel / Israeli

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kamala

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 80.0%

Kamala

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Keisha Lance Bottoms

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

78.0%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 78.0%

Keisha Lance Bottoms

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Laken Riley Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 39.0%

Laken Riley Act

Open Polymarket ↗

Made in America / American Made

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

61.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 61.0%

Made in America / American Made

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Marjorie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 35.0%

Marjorie

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

69.0%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 95.0%

Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

No Qualifying Event-

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.1%

-No Qualifying Event-

Open Polymarket ↗

Nuclear (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 84.0% · Ask 86.0%

Nuclear (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Peace in the Middle East

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Peace in the Middle East

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Rigged Election

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

50.0%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 50.0%

Rigged Election

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Save America Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0%

Save America Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

SI / Super Intelligence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

66.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 70.0%

SI / Super Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Sleepy Joe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 86.0%

Sleepy Joe

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stock Market

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 94.0%

Stock Market

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Supreme Court

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

86.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 87.0%

Supreme Court

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tax 33+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

38.5%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 40.0%

Tax 33+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Transgender

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Transgender

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Transgender 7+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

53.0%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 55.0%

Transgender 7+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Two Percent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

39.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 48.0%

Two Percent

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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