The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Starts in 25 hKickoff
Traded
$138K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Transgender 99%

Next is Dividend / Stimulus at 97%. The venues differ most on Iran (5+ times) (Polymarket 70%, Kalshi 67%), a 3.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Transgender
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Transgender
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dividend / Stimulus
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend / Stimulus
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Save America Act
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Save America Act
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hottest
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sleepy Joe
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Supreme Court
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Hussein Obama
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear (3+ times)
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear (3+ times)
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 38 more outcomes
Russia / Ukraine
83.6%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 84%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 82¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 83¢.

Kamala
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Keisha Lance Bottoms
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Blockade
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blockade
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$875
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormuz
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormuz
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Kalshi
Gulf of America
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gulf of America
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$805
Trade this on Kalshi
Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times
69%
Polymarket 69%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Iran (5+ times)
68%
Polymarket 70%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 67%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iran 5+ times
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (5+ times)
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 66¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 67¢.

SI / Super Intelligence
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Polymarket
Hormuz / Blockade
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Polymarket
Made in America / American Made
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Made in America / American Made
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyundai
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hyundai
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
America First
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Transgender 7+ times
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 7+ times
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Border 22+ times
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Border 22+ times
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Hell 15+ times
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Rigged Election
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rigged Election
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ass
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Crime / Criminal 10+ times
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crime / Criminal 10+ times
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Polymarket
Two Percent
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Two Percent
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket
Tax 33+ times
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tax 33+ times
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Marjorie
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marjorie
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$749
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Drill Baby Drill
28.8%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 28%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 37¢.

AI / Artificial Intelligence
26.5%
Polymarket 26%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 24¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 27¢.

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Filibuster
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Laken Riley Act
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laken Riley Act
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Data Center
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Deport / Deported / Deportation
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deport / Deported / Deportation
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud (3+ times)
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud (3+ times)
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ceasefire
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
No Qualifying Event-
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
Crypto / Bitcoin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 24, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes Oct 24, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Transgender
  • Dividend / Stimulus
  • Save America Act

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Transgender for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?". Transgender leads at 99%. Next is Dividend / Stimulus at 97%. $138K has traded across 48 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Macon, Georgia on October 24, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-macon-ga-president-donald-j-trump-djt47) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Georgia on October 24, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets