Market comparison

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?

2 venues · 50 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $151K reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 8, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

20 outcomes · $2K reported volume

Observed 44s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 26, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
AI / Artificial Intelligence Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	29.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 29.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Kalshi ↗	28.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 29.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Russia / Ukraine Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	80.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 80.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Kalshi ↗	79.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 80.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
America First Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	65.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 65.0% America First Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ass Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 53.0% Ass Open Polymarket ↗	—
Auto Worker / Autoworker Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 83.0% Auto Worker / Autoworker Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Barack Hussein Obama Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0% Barack Hussein Obama Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	44.5% Bid 43.0% · Ask 46.0% Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Polymarket ↗	—
Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	61.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 61.0% Blockade Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Canada / Canadian Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 92.0% Canada / Canadian Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Canada 4+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	65.5% Bid 59.0% · Ask 72.0% Canada 4+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ceasefire Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0% Ceasefire Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 94.0% Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
China / Chinese 7+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	48.5% Bid 46.0% · Ask 51.0% China / Chinese 7+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Communist / Communism Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0% Communist / Communism Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Crypto / Bitcoin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Crypto / Bitcoin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Data Center Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	26.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 47.0% Data Center Open Polymarket ↗	—
Deport / Deported / Deportation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0% Deport / Deported / Deportation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dividend / Stimulus Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 95.0% Dividend / Stimulus Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Drill Baby Drill Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
El-Sayed Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0% El-Sayed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Electric / Electricity Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 56.0% Electric / Electricity Open Polymarket ↗	—
Event does not qualify Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Event does not qualify Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 22.0% Fentanyl Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	32.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 41.0% Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ford / General Motors / GM Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	84.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 84.0% Ford / General Motors / GM Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fraud (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 25.0% Fraud (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gulf of America Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	67.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 67.0% Gulf of America Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hell 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	52.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 55.0% Hell 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hormuz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	66.0% Bid 60.0% · Ask 66.0% Hormuz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hormuz / Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.5% Bid 70.0% · Ask 75.0% Hormuz / Blockade Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hottest Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 93.0% Hottest Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Iran (5+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	72.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 73.0% Iran (5+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Israel / Israeli Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	55.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 55.0% Israel / Israeli Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kamala Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	80.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 82.0% Kamala Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Made in America / American Made Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	70.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0% Made in America / American Made Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Maduro Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	44.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 70.0% Maduro Open Polymarket ↗	—
Marxist Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	52.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 55.0% Marxist Open Polymarket ↗	—
Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	57.5% Bid 49.0% · Ask 66.0% Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
No Qualifying Event- Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.9% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.6% -No Qualifying Event- Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nuclear (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	81.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 83.0% Nuclear (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Osama Bin Laden Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	45.5% Bid 33.0% · Ask 58.0% Osama Bin Laden Open Polymarket ↗	—
Palestine / Palestinian Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 45.0% Palestine / Palestinian Open Polymarket ↗	—
Peace in the Middle East Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Peace in the Middle East Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Save America Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0% Save America Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
SI / Super Intelligence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	62.5% Bid 61.0% · Ask 64.0% SI / Super Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sleepy Joe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% Sleepy Joe Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stock Market Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 95.0% Stock Market Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Supreme Court Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	85.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 85.0% Supreme Court Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Transgender 7+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	54.5% Bid 52.0% · Ask 57.0% Transgender 7+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

29.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 29.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

28.0%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 29.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Russia / Ukraine

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 80.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

79.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 80.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

America First

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

65.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 65.0%

America First

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ass

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

51.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 53.0%

Ass

Open Polymarket ↗

Auto Worker / Autoworker

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 83.0%

Auto Worker / Autoworker

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Barack Hussein Obama

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0%

Barack Hussein Obama

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

44.5%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 46.0%

Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Open Polymarket ↗

Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

61.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 61.0%

Blockade

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Canada / Canadian

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 92.0%

Canada / Canadian

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Canada 4+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

65.5%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 72.0%

Canada 4+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Ceasefire

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0%

Ceasefire

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 94.0%

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

China / Chinese 7+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.5%

Bid 46.0% · Ask 51.0%

China / Chinese 7+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Communist / Communism

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0%

Communist / Communism

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Crypto / Bitcoin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Crypto / Bitcoin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Data Center

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

26.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 47.0%

Data Center

Open Polymarket ↗

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0%

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dividend / Stimulus

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 95.0%

Dividend / Stimulus

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Drill Baby Drill

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0%

Drill Baby Drill

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

El-Sayed

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0%

El-Sayed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Electric / Electricity

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

53.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 56.0%

Electric / Electricity

Open Polymarket ↗

Event does not qualify

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Event does not qualify

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 22.0%

Fentanyl

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

32.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 41.0%

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Open Polymarket ↗

Ford / General Motors / GM

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 84.0%

Ford / General Motors / GM

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fraud (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 25.0%

Fraud (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Gulf of America

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 67.0%

Gulf of America

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hell 15+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

52.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 55.0%

Hell 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Hormuz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 60.0% · Ask 66.0%

Hormuz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hormuz / Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

72.5%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 75.0%

Hormuz / Blockade

Open Polymarket ↗

Hottest

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

93.0%

Bid 92.0% · Ask 93.0%

Hottest

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Iran (5+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

72.0%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 73.0%

Iran (5+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Israel / Israeli

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

55.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 55.0%

Israel / Israeli

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kamala

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 82.0%

Kamala

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Made in America / American Made

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 70.0%

Made in America / American Made

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Maduro

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

44.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 70.0%

Maduro

Open Polymarket ↗

Marxist

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

52.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 55.0%

Marxist

Open Polymarket ↗

Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

57.5%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 66.0%

Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

No Qualifying Event-

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.6%

-No Qualifying Event-

Open Polymarket ↗

Nuclear (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

81.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 83.0%

Nuclear (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Osama Bin Laden

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

45.5%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 58.0%

Osama Bin Laden

Open Polymarket ↗

Palestine / Palestinian

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 45.0%

Palestine / Palestinian

Open Polymarket ↗

Peace in the Middle East

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Peace in the Middle East

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Save America Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0%

Save America Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

SI / Super Intelligence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

62.5%

Bid 61.0% · Ask 64.0%

SI / Super Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Sleepy Joe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

83.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

Sleepy Joe

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Stock Market

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 95.0%

Stock Market

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Supreme Court

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

85.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 85.0%

Supreme Court

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Transgender 7+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

54.5%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 57.0%

Transgender 7+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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