The Prediction Markets

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?

Starts in 2 daysKickoff
Traded
$154K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

El-Sayed 97%

Next is Communist / Communism at 96%. The venues differ most on Russia / Ukraine (Polymarket 79%, Kalshi 80%), a 1.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
El-Sayed
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Communist / Communism
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Communist / Communism
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Save America Act
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Save America Act
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock Market
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock Market
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$847
Trade this on Kalshi
Dividend / Stimulus
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend / Stimulus
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$734
Trade this on Kalshi
Hottest
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hottest
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Hussein Obama
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Hussein Obama
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Canada / Canadian
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Canada / Canadian
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi
Supreme Court
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 40 more outcomes
Ford / General Motors / GM
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ford / General Motors / GM
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$980
Trade this on Kalshi
Auto Worker / Autoworker
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Auto Worker / Autoworker
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$545
Trade this on Kalshi
Sleepy Joe
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sleepy Joe
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$674
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear (3+ times)
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear (3+ times)
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / Ukraine
79.7%
Polymarket 79%polled, 46s agoKalshi 80%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$785
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 79¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 80¢.

Hormuz / Blockade
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hormuz / Blockade
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Iran (5+ times)
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (5+ times)
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Made in America / American Made
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Made in America / American Made
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gulf of America
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gulf of America
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormuz
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormuz
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$851
Trade this on Kalshi
Canada 4+ times
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Canada 4+ times
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$289
Trade this on Polymarket
America First
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
SI / Super Intelligence
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Blockade
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blockade
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel / Israeli
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Transgender 7+ times
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Transgender 7+ times
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
Electric / Electricity
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Electric / Electricity
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
Marxist
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marxist
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hell 15+ times
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hell 15+ times
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
Ass
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ass
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
China / Chinese 7+ times
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
China / Chinese 7+ times
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Polymarket
Osama Bin Laden
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Osama Bin Laden
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Polymarket
Maduro
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maduro
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Polymarket
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Polymarket
AI / Artificial Intelligence
28.8%
Polymarket 28%polled, 46s agoKalshi 29%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 27¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Data Center
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data Center
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fraud (3+ times)
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud (3+ times)
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Palestine / Palestinian
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Palestine / Palestinian
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Drill Baby Drill
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drill Baby Drill
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$392
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Kalshi
Deport / Deported / Deportation
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deport / Deported / Deportation
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ceasefire
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peace in the Middle East
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peace in the Middle East
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Polymarket
No Qualifying Event-
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 26, 2026, 7:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 8, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes Oct 26, 2026, 7:05 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 8, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • El-Sayed
  • Communist / Communism
  • Save America Act

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list El-Sayed for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?". El-Sayed leads at 97%. Next is Communist / Communism at 96%. $154K has traded across 50 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in St. Clair, Michigan on October 26, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-st-clair-mi-president-donald-j-trump-djt47) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Michigan on October 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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