Market comparison

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa?

2 venues · 57 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

40 outcomes · $318K reported volume

Observed 29s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 5, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

21 outcomes · $16K reported volume

Observed 29s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 22, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
AI / Artificial Intelligence Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	41.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 41.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Kalshi ↗	40.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 41.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Data Center Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	36.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 38.0% Data Center Open Kalshi ↗	33.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 38.0% Data Center Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Google Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	63.0% Bid 58.0% · Ask 63.0% Google Open Kalshi ↗	57.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 60.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗	5.5 pp
Russia / Ukraine Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	72.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 73.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Kalshi ↗	70.5% Bid 70.0% · Ask 71.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
America First Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 37.0% America First Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ass Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.0% Bid 51.0% · Ask 55.0% Ass Open Polymarket ↗	—
Barack Hussein Obama Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	76.0% Bid 76.0% · Ask 77.0% Barack Hussein Obama Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	54.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 56.0% Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.5% Bid 3.1% · Ask 5.9% Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Polymarket ↗	—
Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% Blockade Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ceasefire Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Ceasefire Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Corn Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	57.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0% Corn Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Crypto / Bitcoin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Crypto / Bitcoin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Democrat 5+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	86.1% Bid 74.3% · Ask 97.9% Democrat 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Deport / Deported / Deportation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 19.0% Deport / Deported / Deportation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dividend / Stimulus Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 95.0% Dividend / Stimulus Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Drill Baby Drill Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 42.0% · Ask 43.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
E15 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 85.0% E15 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Estate Tax / Death Tax Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 93.0% Estate Tax / Death Tax Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ethanol Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 84.0% Ethanol Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Event does not qualify Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Event does not qualify Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0% Fentanyl Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0% Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Open Polymarket ↗	—
Filibuster Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0% Filibuster Open Polymarket ↗	—
France / Paris Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	81.5% Bid 79.0% · Ask 84.0% France / Paris Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fraud (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% Fraud (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gulf of America Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	60.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0% Gulf of America Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Healthcare Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	87.0% Bid 87.0% · Ask 91.0% Healthcare Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hell 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.5% Bid 51.0% · Ask 52.0% Hell 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hormuz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 50.0% Hormuz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hormuz / Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	56.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 58.0% Hormuz / Blockade Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hottest Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	91.0% Bid 91.0% · Ask 92.0% Hottest Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ilhan / Omar Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 43.0% Ilhan / Omar Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Iran (5+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	66.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 67.0% Iran (5+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Israel / Israeli Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	48.0% Bid 43.0% · Ask 48.0% Israel / Israeli Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kamala Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	68.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 69.0% Kamala Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Made in America / American Made Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	71.0% Bid 70.0% · Ask 71.0% Made in America / American Made Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Meat / Steak Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	64.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 65.0% Meat / Steak Open Polymarket ↗	—
Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	85.5% Bid 73.0% · Ask 98.0% Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
No Qualifying Event- Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.3% -No Qualifying Event- Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nuclear (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% Nuclear (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Peace in the Middle East Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Peace in the Middle East Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Right to Repair / Right to Fix Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	41.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 46.0% Right to Repair / Right to Fix Open Polymarket ↗	—
Save America Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0% Save America Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
SI / Super Intelligence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 71.0% SI / Super Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sleepy Joe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	83.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 86.0% Sleepy Joe Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Somalia / Somali / Somalian Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 35.0% Somalia / Somali / Somalian Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Soybean Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	52.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 60.0% Soybean Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Space Force Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	42.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 42.0% Space Force Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Steel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	88.0% Bid 88.0% · Ask 89.0% Steel Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stock Market Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	93.0% Bid 92.0% · Ask 93.0% Stock Market Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Supreme Court Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	73.0% Bid 73.0% · Ask 78.0% Supreme Court Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tax 33+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	35.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 37.0% Tax 33+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Transgender Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Transgender Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Transgender 7+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	57.0% Bid 54.0% · Ask 60.0% Transgender 7+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Trump Account Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	36.0% Bid 34.0% · Ask 36.0% Trump Account Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Veteran Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.5% Bid 59.0% · Ask 76.0% Veteran Open Polymarket ↗	—

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 41.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa?

Kalshi

Polymarket

Known rule differences between venues

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Kalshi

Polymarket

Data Center

Kalshi

Polymarket

Google

Kalshi

Polymarket

Russia / Ukraine

Kalshi

Polymarket

America First

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ass

Kalshi

Polymarket

Barack Hussein Obama

Kalshi

Polymarket

Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times

Kalshi

Polymarket

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Kalshi

Polymarket

Blockade

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ceasefire

Kalshi

Polymarket

Corn

Kalshi

Polymarket

Crypto / Bitcoin

Kalshi

Polymarket

Democrat 5+ times

Kalshi

Polymarket

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Kalshi

Polymarket

Dividend / Stimulus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Drill Baby Drill

Kalshi

Polymarket

E15

Kalshi

Polymarket

Estate Tax / Death Tax

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ethanol

Kalshi

Polymarket

Event does not qualify

Kalshi

Polymarket

Fentanyl

Kalshi

Polymarket

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Kalshi

Polymarket

Filibuster

Kalshi

Polymarket

France / Paris

Kalshi

Polymarket

Fraud (3+ times)