Market comparison

What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?

2 venues · 52 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $84K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 8, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

24 outcomes · $10K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 23, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for What will Trump say during his rally in Michigan?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
AI / Artificial Intelligence Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	23.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Kalshi ↗	29.5% Bid 29.0% · Ask 30.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	6.5 pp
Drill Baby Drill Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Kalshi ↗	22.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Iran 5+ times Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	67.0% Bid 64.0% · Ask 67.0% Iran (5+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	77.5% Bid 76.0% · Ask 79.0% Iran 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	10.5 pp
Russia / Ukraine Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	69.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 71.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Kalshi ↗	82.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 83.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Polymarket ↗	13.0 pp
America First Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	44.0% Bid 40.0% · Ask 44.0% America First Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ass Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	48.0% Bid 45.0% · Ask 51.0% Ass Open Polymarket ↗	—
Auto Worker / Autoworker Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	79.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 80.0% Auto Worker / Autoworker Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Barack Hussein Obama Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	79.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 80.0% Barack Hussein Obama Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	87.0% Bid 83.0% · Ask 91.0% Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.9% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.8% Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Polymarket ↗	—
Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	36.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 42.0% Blockade Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Canada / Canadian Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	89.0% Bid 89.0% · Ask 90.0% Canada / Canadian Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ceasefire Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Ceasefire Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0% Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Communist / Communism Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0% Communist / Communism Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Crime / Criminal 5+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	87.0% Bid 81.0% · Ask 93.0% Crime / Criminal 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Crypto / Bitcoin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Crypto / Bitcoin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Data Center Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	23.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% Data Center Open Polymarket ↗	—
Democrat 5+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	96.7% Bid 95.3% · Ask 98.0% Democrat 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Deport / Deported / Deportation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0% Deport / Deported / Deportation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dividend / Stimulus Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 95.0% Dividend / Stimulus Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
El-Sayed Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0% El-Sayed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Event does not qualify Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Event does not qualify Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0% Fentanyl Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0% Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Open Polymarket ↗	—
Filibuster Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0% Filibuster Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fish / Fisher / Fishing Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	63.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 72.0% Fish / Fisher / Fishing Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ford / General Motors / GM Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	80.0% Bid 80.0% · Ask 84.0% Ford / General Motors / GM Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fraud (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 18.0% Fraud (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gulf of America Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% Gulf of America Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hell 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	57.5% Bid 56.0% · Ask 59.0% Hell 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hormuz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	49.0% Bid 46.0% · Ask 49.0% Hormuz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hormuz / Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	73.5% Bid 70.0% · Ask 77.0% Hormuz / Blockade Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hottest Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0% Hottest Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Israel / Israeli Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	54.0% Bid 52.0% · Ask 55.0% Israel / Israeli Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jacksonville Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	20.5% Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0% Jacksonville Open Polymarket ↗	—
Kamala Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	74.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 75.0% Kamala Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Made in America / American Made Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.0% Bid 63.0% · Ask 64.0% Made in America / American Made Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mar-a-Lago / Golf Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	68.5% Bid 52.0% · Ask 85.0% Mar-a-Lago / Golf Open Polymarket ↗	—
Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.0% Bid 86.0% · Ask 94.0% Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
No Qualifying Event- Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.9% -No Qualifying Event- Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nuclear (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	72.0% Bid 72.0% · Ask 76.0% Nuclear (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Peace in the Middle East Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Peace in the Middle East Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Save America Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0% Save America Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
SI / Super Intelligence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	60.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 61.0% SI / Super Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sleepy Joe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	82.0% Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0% Sleepy Joe Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Space / Moon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.5% Bid 71.0% · Ask 74.0% Space / Moon Open Polymarket ↗	—
Stock Market Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	95.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 95.0% Stock Market Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Supreme Court Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	74.0% Bid 74.0% · Ask 76.0% Supreme Court Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tariff 6+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.5% Bid 49.0% · Ask 52.0% Tariff 6+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Transgender 5+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	77.5% Bid 77.0% · Ask 78.0% Transgender 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Veteran Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	43.5% Bid 27.0% · Ask 60.0% Veteran Open Polymarket ↗	—

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

29.5%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 30.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 6.5 pp

Drill Baby Drill

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0%

Drill Baby Drill

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0%

Drill Baby Drill

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Iran 5+ times

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 67.0%

Iran (5+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

77.5%

Bid 76.0% · Ask 79.0%

Iran 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.5 pp

Russia / Ukraine

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

69.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 71.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

82.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 83.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 13.0 pp

America First

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

44.0%

Bid 40.0% · Ask 44.0%

America First

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ass

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 45.0% · Ask 51.0%

Ass

Open Polymarket ↗

Auto Worker / Autoworker

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 80.0%

Auto Worker / Autoworker

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Barack Hussein Obama

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

79.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 80.0%

Barack Hussein Obama

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

87.0%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 91.0%

Biden / Kamala / Obama 10+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.8%

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Open Polymarket ↗

Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

36.0%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 42.0%

Blockade

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Canada / Canadian

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

89.0%

Bid 89.0% · Ask 90.0%

Canada / Canadian

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ceasefire

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Ceasefire

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0%

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Communist / Communism

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 97.0%

Communist / Communism

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Crime / Criminal 5+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

87.0%

Bid 81.0% · Ask 93.0%

Crime / Criminal 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Crypto / Bitcoin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Crypto / Bitcoin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Data Center

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

23.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0%

Data Center

Open Polymarket ↗

Democrat 5+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

96.7%

Bid 95.3% · Ask 98.0%

Democrat 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0%

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dividend / Stimulus

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 95.0%

Dividend / Stimulus

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

El-Sayed

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 97.0% · Ask 98.0%

El-Sayed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Event does not qualify

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0%

Event does not qualify

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 18.0%

Fentanyl

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0%

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Open Polymarket ↗

Filibuster

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0%

Filibuster

Open Polymarket ↗

Fish / Fisher / Fishing

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

63.5%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 72.0%

Fish / Fisher / Fishing

Open Polymarket ↗

Ford / General Motors / GM

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 80.0% · Ask 84.0%

Ford / General Motors / GM

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fraud (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 18.0%

Fraud (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Gulf of America

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

Gulf of America

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hell 15+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

57.5%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 59.0%

Hell 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Hormuz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

49.0%

Bid 46.0% · Ask 49.0%

Hormuz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hormuz / Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

73.5%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 77.0%

Hormuz / Blockade

Open Polymarket ↗

Hottest

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

90.0%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 91.0%

Hottest

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Israel / Israeli

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

54.0%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 55.0%

Israel / Israeli

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jacksonville

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 21.0%

Jacksonville

Open Polymarket ↗

Kamala

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 68.0% · Ask 75.0%

Kamala

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Made in America / American Made

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 64.0%

Made in America / American Made

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mar-a-Lago / Golf

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

68.5%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 85.0%

Mar-a-Lago / Golf

Open Polymarket ↗

Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

90.0%

Bid 86.0% · Ask 94.0%

Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

No Qualifying Event-

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.9%

-No Qualifying Event-

Open Polymarket ↗

Nuclear (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

72.0%

Bid 72.0% · Ask 76.0%

Nuclear (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Peace in the Middle East

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Peace in the Middle East

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Save America Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 95.0% · Ask 96.0%

Save America Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

SI / Super Intelligence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

60.0%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 61.0%

SI / Super Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Sleepy Joe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

82.0%

Bid 82.0% · Ask 83.0%

Sleepy Joe

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Space / Moon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

72.5%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 74.0%

Space / Moon

Open Polymarket ↗

Stock Market

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

95.0%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 95.0%

Stock Market

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Supreme Court

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

74.0%

Bid 74.0% · Ask 76.0%

Supreme Court

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tariff 6+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.5%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 52.0%

Tariff 6+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Transgender 5+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

77.5%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 78.0%

Transgender 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Veteran

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

43.5%

Bid 27.0% · Ask 60.0%

Veteran

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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