Market comparison

What will Trump say during his rally in Waco, Texas?

2 venues · 59 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

35 outcomes · $105K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 10, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

42 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 22, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for What will Trump say during his rally in Waco, Texas?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
AI / Artificial Intelligence Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Kalshi ↗	42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗ 41.5% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% AI / Artificial Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	—
Data Center Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Data Center Open Kalshi ↗	32.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 35.0% Data Center Open Polymarket ↗ 31.0% Bid 29.0% · Ask 33.0% Data Center Open Polymarket ↗	—
Drill Baby Drill Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	26.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 26.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Kalshi ↗	31.5% Bid 30.0% · Ask 33.0% Drill Baby Drill Open Polymarket ↗	5.5 pp
Iran 5+ times Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	10.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 12.0% Iran (5+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	60.5% Bid 58.0% · Ask 63.0% Iran 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	50.5 pp
Russia / Ukraine Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 28.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Kalshi ↗	70.5% Bid 70.0% · Ask 71.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Polymarket ↗ 63.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 64.0% Russia / Ukraine Open Polymarket ↗	—
America First Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 19.0% America First Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ass Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.5% Bid 52.0% · Ask 55.0% Ass Open Polymarket ↗ 52.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 54.0% Ass Open Polymarket ↗	—
Barack Hussein Obama Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 23.0% Barack Hussein Obama Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	46.5% Bid 43.0% · Ask 50.0% Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.9% Bid 1.4% · Ask 2.4% Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Polymarket ↗ 4.0% Bid 1.2% · Ask 6.9% Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency Open Polymarket ↗	—
Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Blockade Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ceasefire Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Ceasefire Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 26.0% Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
China / Chinese Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 24.0% China / Chinese Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Crypto / Bitcoin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Crypto / Bitcoin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Democrat 5+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	95.5% Bid 93.0% · Ask 98.0% Democrat 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗ 91.5% Bid 90.0% · Ask 93.0% Democrat 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Deport / Deported / Deportation Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0% Deport / Deported / Deportation Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Electricity Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 27.0% Electricity Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Event does not qualify Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	80.0% Bid 77.0% · Ask 80.0% Event does not qualify Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Fentanyl Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0% Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Open Polymarket ↗ 26.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0% Fentanyl / Deport / Deported Open Polymarket ↗	—
Filibuster Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0% Filibuster Open Polymarket ↗ 19.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 28.0% Filibuster Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fish / Fisher / Fishing Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 91.0% Fish / Fisher / Fishing Open Polymarket ↗	—
France Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 20.0% France Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
France / Paris Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	81.5% Bid 78.0% · Ask 85.0% France / Paris Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fraud (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 9.0% Fraud (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Google Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	60.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 65.0% Google Open Polymarket ↗	—
Gulf of America Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 27.0% Gulf of America Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hell 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 51.0% Hell 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗ 55.5% Bid 51.0% · Ask 60.0% Hell 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Hormuz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Hormuz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hormuz / Blockade Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	56.5% Bid 55.0% · Ask 58.0% Hormuz / Blockade Open Polymarket ↗ 46.0% Bid 44.0% · Ask 48.0% Hormuz / Blockade Open Polymarket ↗	—
ICE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0% ICE Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Israel / Israeli Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 13.0% Israel / Israeli Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jacksonville Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	31.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 44.0% Jacksonville Open Polymarket ↗	—
Kamala Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 23.0% Kamala Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Made in America / American Made Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0% Made in America / American Made Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mar-a-Lago / Golf Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	57.5% Bid 44.0% · Ask 71.0% Mar-a-Lago / Golf Open Polymarket ↗	—
Meat / Steak Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	46.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 59.0% Meat / Steak Open Polymarket ↗	—
Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	90.5% Bid 83.0% · Ask 98.0% Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
No Qualifying Event- Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.8% -No Qualifying Event- Open Polymarket ↗ 1.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% -No Qualifying Event- Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nuclear (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 16.0% Nuclear (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Palestine / Palestinian Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Palestine / Palestinian Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Peace in the Middle East Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Peace in the Middle East Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Right to Repair / Right to Fix Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	41.5% Bid 37.0% · Ask 46.0% Right to Repair / Right to Fix Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sanctuary Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 28.0% Sanctuary Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Save America Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 26.0% Save America Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
SI / Super Intelligence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.0% Bid 69.0% · Ask 71.0% SI / Super Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗ 68.5% Bid 67.0% · Ask 70.0% SI / Super Intelligence Open Polymarket ↗	—
Sleepy Joe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 26.0% Sleepy Joe Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Social Security (5+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Social Security (5+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Space / Moon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.5% Bid 70.0% · Ask 75.0% Space / Moon Open Polymarket ↗	—
Supreme Court Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 25.0% Supreme Court Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tariff (3+ times) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 23.0% Tariff (3+ times) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tariff 6+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	51.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 53.0% Tariff 6+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Tax 33+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.5% Bid 36.0% · Ask 39.0% Tax 33+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Transgender 5+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	76.5% Bid 75.0% · Ask 78.0% Transgender 5+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Transgender 7+ times Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	50.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 52.0% Transgender 7+ times Open Polymarket ↗	—
Trump Account Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0% Trump Account Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Veteran Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	67.5% Bid 59.0% · Ask 76.0% Veteran Open Polymarket ↗ 57.5% Bid 50.0% · Ask 65.0% Veteran Open Polymarket ↗	—
Windmill Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 15.0% Windmill Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

42.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

41.5%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Data Center

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Data Center

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 35.0%

Data Center

Open Polymarket ↗

31.0%

Bid 29.0% · Ask 33.0%

Data Center

Open Polymarket ↗

Drill Baby Drill

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 26.0%

Drill Baby Drill

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

31.5%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 33.0%

Drill Baby Drill

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

Iran 5+ times

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 12.0%

Iran (5+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

60.5%

Bid 58.0% · Ask 63.0%

Iran 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 50.5 pp

Russia / Ukraine

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 28.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

70.5%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 71.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Polymarket ↗

63.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 64.0%

Russia / Ukraine

Open Polymarket ↗

America First

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 19.0%

America First

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ass

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

53.5%

Bid 52.0% · Ask 55.0%

Ass

Open Polymarket ↗

52.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 54.0%

Ass

Open Polymarket ↗

Barack Hussein Obama

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 23.0%

Barack Hussein Obama

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

46.5%

Bid 43.0% · Ask 50.0%

Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 2.4%

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Open Polymarket ↗

4.0%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 6.9%

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

Open Polymarket ↗

Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Blockade

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ceasefire

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Ceasefire

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 26.0%

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

China / Chinese

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

23.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 24.0%

China / Chinese

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Crypto / Bitcoin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Crypto / Bitcoin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Democrat 5+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

95.5%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 98.0%

Democrat 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

91.5%

Bid 90.0% · Ask 93.0%

Democrat 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0%

Deport / Deported / Deportation

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Electricity

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 27.0%

Electricity

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Event does not qualify

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

80.0%

Bid 77.0% · Ask 80.0%

Event does not qualify

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Fentanyl

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0%

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Open Polymarket ↗

26.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 28.0%

Fentanyl / Deport / Deported

Open Polymarket ↗

Filibuster

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0%

Filibuster

Open Polymarket ↗

19.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 28.0%

Filibuster

Open Polymarket ↗

Fish / Fisher / Fishing

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

70.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 91.0%

Fish / Fisher / Fishing

Open Polymarket ↗

France

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 20.0%

France

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

France / Paris

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

81.5%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 85.0%

France / Paris

Open Polymarket ↗

Fraud (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 9.0%

Fraud (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Google

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

60.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 65.0%

Google

Open Polymarket ↗

Gulf of America

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 27.0%

Gulf of America

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hell 15+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 51.0%

Hell 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

55.5%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 60.0%

Hell 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Hormuz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Hormuz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hormuz / Blockade

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

56.5%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 58.0%

Hormuz / Blockade

Open Polymarket ↗

46.0%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 48.0%

Hormuz / Blockade

Open Polymarket ↗

ICE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0%

ICE

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Israel / Israeli

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 13.0%

Israel / Israeli

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jacksonville

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

31.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 44.0%

Jacksonville

Open Polymarket ↗

Kamala

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 23.0%

Kamala

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Made in America / American Made

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 15.0%

Made in America / American Made

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mar-a-Lago / Golf

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

57.5%

Bid 44.0% · Ask 71.0%

Mar-a-Lago / Golf

Open Polymarket ↗

Meat / Steak

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

46.5%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 59.0%

Meat / Steak

Open Polymarket ↗

Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

90.5%

Bid 83.0% · Ask 98.0%

Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

No Qualifying Event-

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.8%

-No Qualifying Event-

Open Polymarket ↗

1.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

-No Qualifying Event-

Open Polymarket ↗

Nuclear (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 16.0%

Nuclear (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Palestine / Palestinian

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Palestine / Palestinian

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Peace in the Middle East

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Peace in the Middle East

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Right to Repair / Right to Fix

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

41.5%

Bid 37.0% · Ask 46.0%

Right to Repair / Right to Fix

Open Polymarket ↗

Sanctuary

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 28.0%

Sanctuary

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Save America Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 26.0%

Save America Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

SI / Super Intelligence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

70.0%

Bid 69.0% · Ask 71.0%

SI / Super Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

68.5%

Bid 67.0% · Ask 70.0%

SI / Super Intelligence

Open Polymarket ↗

Sleepy Joe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 26.0%

Sleepy Joe

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Social Security (5+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0%

Social Security (5+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Space / Moon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

72.5%

Bid 70.0% · Ask 75.0%

Space / Moon

Open Polymarket ↗

Supreme Court

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 25.0%

Supreme Court

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tariff (3+ times)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 23.0%

Tariff (3+ times)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tariff 6+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

51.0%

Bid 49.0% · Ask 53.0%

Tariff 6+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Tax 33+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

37.5%

Bid 36.0% · Ask 39.0%

Tax 33+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Transgender 5+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

76.5%

Bid 75.0% · Ask 78.0%

Transgender 5+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Transgender 7+ times

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

50.0%

Bid 48.0% · Ask 52.0%

Transgender 7+ times

Open Polymarket ↗

Trump Account

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0%

Trump Account

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Veteran

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

67.5%

Bid 59.0% · Ask 76.0%

Veteran

Open Polymarket ↗

57.5%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 65.0%

Veteran

Open Polymarket ↗

Windmill

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 15.0%

Windmill

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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