Market comparison

When will Bitcoin hit $100k?

2 venues · 16 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

11 outcomes · $4.2M reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $135K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks real-time index; Polymarket on Binance 1-minute candles.
Windows differ: Kalshi rungs count from their own start date (e.g. 'cross $100k again' from Jul 21, 2026); Polymarket from market creation. Only identical deadlines are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for When will Bitcoin hit $100k?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
By 2026-12-31 Resolution sources differ Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% Before January 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	21.5% Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0% by December 31, 2026 Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Before April 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before April 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before December 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0% Before December 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before February 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before February 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before July 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before July 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before June 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before June 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before March 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before March 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Before May 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before November 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Before November 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before October 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before October 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before September 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before September 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
by December 31, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	72.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 73.0% by December 31, 2027 Open Polymarket ↗	—
by June 30, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	53.5% Bid 51.0% · Ask 56.0% by June 30, 2027 Open Polymarket ↗	—
by March 31, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	42.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0% by March 31, 2027 Open Polymarket ↗	—
by September 30, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 4.2% by September 30, 2026 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
by September 30, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	64.5% Bid 63.0% · Ask 66.0% by September 30, 2027 Open Polymarket ↗	—

By 2026-12-31

Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0%

Before January 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

21.5%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 22.0%

by December 31, 2026

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Before April 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before April 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before December 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0%

Before December 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before February 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before February 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before July 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before July 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before June 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before June 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before March 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before March 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before May 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Before May 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before November 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Before November 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before October 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before October 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Before September 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before September 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

by December 31, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

72.0%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 73.0%

by December 31, 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

by June 30, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

53.5%

Bid 51.0% · Ask 56.0%

by June 30, 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

by March 31, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

42.0%

Bid 41.0% · Ask 43.0%

by March 31, 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

by September 30, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 4.2%

by September 30, 2026 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

by September 30, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

64.5%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 66.0%

by September 30, 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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