Market comparison

When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?

2 venues · 31 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

25 outcomes · $993K reported volume

Observed 4m ago

Observed 32s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 31, 2026

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $42K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for When will the U.S. and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Austria Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.3% · Ask 3.8% Austria Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Before Apr 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	70.5% Bid 66.0% · Ask 75.0% Before Apr 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Dec 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	18.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0% Before Dec 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Feb 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	25.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 78.0% Before Feb 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	29.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 50.0% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Mar 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	42.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 66.0% Before Mar 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Nov 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Before Nov 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—
Before Oct 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—
December 31, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.5% Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0% December 31, 2026 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Egypt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7% Egypt Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Iran Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Iran Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Iraq Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% Iraq Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Italy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.6% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.2% Italy Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Kazakhstan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Kazakhstan Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
No Meeting by December 31 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	64.5% Bid 64.0% · Ask 65.0% No Meeting by December 31 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
November 30, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0% November 30, 2026 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
October 5, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% October 5, 2026 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
October 31, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% October 31, 2026 Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Oman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.3% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.7% Oman Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Other - Europe Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.0% Other - Europe Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Other - Middle East/North Africa Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.8% Other - Middle East/North Africa Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Pakistan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.7% Bid 1.4% · Ask 4.0% Pakistan Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Qatar Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.1% Bid 12.2% · Ask 14.0% Qatar Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Russia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.3% Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.6% Russia Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Saudi Arabia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.8% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.5% Saudi Arabia Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
September 24, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September 24, 2026 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
September 30, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September 30, 2026 · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Switzerland Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.8% Bid 5.2% · Ask 6.4% Switzerland Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Turkey Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.6% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.3% Turkey Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
UAE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.6% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.3% UAE Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
USA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.5% · Ask 2.5% USA Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Austria

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 2.3% · Ask 3.8%

Austria

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Before Apr 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

70.5%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 75.0%

Before Apr 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Dec 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 18.0% · Ask 20.0%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Feb 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 78.0%

Before Feb 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Jan 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

29.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 50.0%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Mar 1, 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

42.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 66.0%

Before Mar 1, 2027

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Nov 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Open Kalshi ↗

Before Oct 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

December 31, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

34.5%

Bid 34.0% · Ask 35.0%

December 31, 2026

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Egypt

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.7%

Egypt

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Iran

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Iran

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Iraq

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5%

Iraq

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Italy

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.2%

Italy

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Kazakhstan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Kazakhstan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

No Meeting by December 31

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

64.5%

Bid 64.0% · Ask 65.0%

No Meeting by December 31

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

November 30, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

22.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0%

November 30, 2026

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

October 5, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

October 5, 2026 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

October 31, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

October 31, 2026

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Oman

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

4.3%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.7%

Oman

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Other - Europe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.0%

Other - Europe

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Other - Middle East/North Africa

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.0%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.8%

Other - Middle East/North Africa

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Pakistan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.7%

Bid 1.4% · Ask 4.0%

Pakistan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Qatar

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

13.1%

Bid 12.2% · Ask 14.0%

Qatar

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Russia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.3%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 1.6%

Russia

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Saudi Arabia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.5%

Saudi Arabia

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

September 24, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

September 24, 2026 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

September 30, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

September 30, 2026 · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Switzerland

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

5.8%

Bid 5.2% · Ask 6.4%

Switzerland

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Turkey

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.6%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.3%

Turkey

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

UAE

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

3.6%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.3%

UAE

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

USA

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

2.0%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 2.5%

USA

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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