Market comparison

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

2 venues · 37 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

29 outcomes · $18.9M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $17.0M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 5m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
August Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% August · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Before Apr 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Apr 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Apr 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Before Apr 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Apr 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Apr 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Aug 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Aug 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Aug 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0% Before Aug 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Aug 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Aug 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Dec 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Before Dec 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Dec 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	39.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 42.0% Before Dec 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Feb 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 11.0% Before Feb 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 8.9% · Ask 9.0% Before Jan 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	49.0% Bid 48.0% · Ask 49.0% Before Jan 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jan 1, 2029 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	59.0% Bid 59.0% · Ask 60.0% Before Jan 1, 2029 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jul 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.8% Bid 7.7% · Ask 7.8% Before Jul 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jul 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	32.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 32.0% Before Jul 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jul 1, 2028 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	58.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 59.0% Before Jul 1, 2028 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jul 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	23.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 24.0% Before Jul 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jun 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Jun 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jun 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	25.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0% Before Jun 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Jun 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Jun 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Mar 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% Before Mar 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before May 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 21.0% Before May 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before May 15, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.1% Before May 15, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Before Nov 1, 2026 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Nov 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	41.0% Bid 41.0% · Ask 42.0% Before Nov 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Oct 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Oct 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	36.0% Bid 36.0% · Ask 37.0% Before Oct 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Sep 1, 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Before Sep 1, 2026 · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Before Sep 1, 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 34.0% Before Sep 1, 2027 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
December Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.6% Bid 7.4% · Ask 7.8% December Open Polymarket ↗	—
July Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% July · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	88.5% Bid 88.0% · Ask 89.0% No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 Open Polymarket ↗	—
November Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.1% November Open Polymarket ↗	—
October Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.2% Bid 0.6% · Ask 1.8% October Open Polymarket ↗	—
September Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.0% Bid — · Ask 0.1% September · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Yes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	11.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗ 5.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Yes Open Polymarket ↗	—

August

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.0%

Bid — · Ask 0.1%

August · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Before Apr 1, 2026

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Before Apr 1, 2026 · closed

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Kalshi

Polymarket

August

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Apr 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Apr 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Apr 15, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Aug 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Aug 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Aug 15, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Dec 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Dec 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Feb 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jan 1, 2028

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jan 1, 2029

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jul 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jul 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jul 1, 2028

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jul 15, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jun 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jun 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Jun 15, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Mar 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before May 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before May 1, 2027

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before May 15, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Nov 1, 2026

Kalshi

Polymarket

Before Nov 1, 2027

Kalshi