Market comparison

Where will it rain on October 23?

2 venues · 35 outcome rows · 14 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

35 outcomes · $392K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $1K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Both settle on the NWS Daily Climate Report precipitation for each city's station. Kalshi pays on 'strictly greater than 0 inches'; Polymarket on 0.01 in or more and excludes trace. Treat a trace report as a possible split.
City lists differ; only cities on both venues are linked.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Where will it rain on October 23?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Atlanta Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Atlanta Open Kalshi ↗	49.3% Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.6% Atlanta, GA Open Polymarket ↗	48.3 pp
Boston Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Boston Open Kalshi ↗	49.1% Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.3% Boston, MA Open Polymarket ↗	48.1 pp
Chicago Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Chicago Open Kalshi ↗	47.2% Bid 0.1% · Ask 94.3% Chicago, IL Open Polymarket ↗	46.2 pp
Dallas Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Dallas Open Kalshi ↗	47.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 94.6% Dallas, TX Open Polymarket ↗	46.3 pp
Houston Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Houston Open Kalshi ↗	48.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 95.9% Houston, TX Open Polymarket ↗	47.0 pp
Los Angeles Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0% Los Angeles Open Kalshi ↗	7.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 14.0% Los Angeles, CA Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Miami Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	64.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 64.0% Miami Open Kalshi ↗	46.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 82.0% Miami, FL Open Polymarket ↗	17.5 pp
New Orleans Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% New Orleans Open Kalshi ↗	48.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 97.7% New Orleans, LA Open Polymarket ↗	47.9 pp
New York City Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% New York City Open Kalshi ↗	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% New York, NY Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Philadelphia Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Philadelphia Open Kalshi ↗	48.7% Bid 1.0% · Ask 96.4% Philadelphia, PA Open Polymarket ↗	47.7 pp
Phoenix Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Phoenix Open Kalshi ↗	0.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0% Phoenix, AZ Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
San Francisco Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% San Francisco Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.0% San Francisco, CA Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
Seattle Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Seattle Open Kalshi ↗	4.5% Bid 0.1% · Ask 9.0% Seattle, WA Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Washington DC Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Washington DC Open Kalshi ↗	49.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.1% Washington, DC Open Polymarket ↗	48.0 pp
Albuquerque Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Albuquerque Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Austin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Austin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
College Station Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% College Station Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Columbus Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Columbus Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Denver Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Denver Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Detroit Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Detroit Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Indianapolis Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Indianapolis Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Las Vegas Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Las Vegas Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lexington Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Lexington Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Milwaukee Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Milwaukee Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Minneapolis Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	56.0% Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0% Minneapolis Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Newark Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Newark Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Oklahoma City Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Oklahoma City Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Pittsburgh Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Pittsburgh Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Providence Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Providence Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
San Antonio Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% San Antonio Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Springfield Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Springfield Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
St. Louis Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% St. Louis Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tampa Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Tampa Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Trenton Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Trenton Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
West Palm Beach Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	56.0% Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0% West Palm Beach Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Atlanta

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Atlanta

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

49.3%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.6%

Atlanta, GA

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 48.3 pp

Boston

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Boston

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

49.1%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.3%

Boston, MA

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 48.1 pp

Chicago

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Chicago

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

47.2%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 94.3%

Chicago, IL

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 46.2 pp

Dallas

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Dallas

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

47.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 94.6%

Dallas, TX

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 46.3 pp

Houston

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Houston

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

48.0%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 95.9%

Houston, TX

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 47.0 pp

Los Angeles

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 7.0%

Los Angeles

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 14.0%

Los Angeles, CA

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Miami

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

64.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 64.0%

Miami

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

46.5%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 82.0%

Miami, FL

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 17.5 pp

New Orleans

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

New Orleans

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

48.9%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 97.7%

New Orleans, LA

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 47.9 pp

New York City

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

New York City

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

New York, NY

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Philadelphia

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Philadelphia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

48.7%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 96.4%

Philadelphia, PA

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 47.7 pp

Phoenix

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Phoenix

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 1.0%

Phoenix, AZ

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

San Francisco

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

San Francisco

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 10.0%

San Francisco, CA

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

Seattle

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Seattle

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 9.0%

Seattle, WA

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Washington DC

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Washington DC

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

49.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 97.1%

Washington, DC

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 48.0 pp

Albuquerque

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Albuquerque

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Austin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Austin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

College Station

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

College Station

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Columbus

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Columbus

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Denver

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Denver

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Detroit

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Detroit

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Indianapolis

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Indianapolis

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Las Vegas

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Las Vegas

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Lexington

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Lexington

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Milwaukee

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Milwaukee

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Minneapolis

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

56.0%

Bid 56.0% · Ask 57.0%

Minneapolis

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Newark

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Newark

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Oklahoma City

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Oklahoma City

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Pittsburgh

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Pittsburgh

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Providence

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Providence

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

San Antonio

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

San Antonio

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Springfield

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Springfield

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

St. Louis

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

St. Louis

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tampa

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Tampa

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Trenton

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Trenton

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

West Palm Beach

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

56.0%

Bid 55.0% · Ask 56.0%

West Palm Beach

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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