The Prediction Markets

Where will it rain on October 23?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$393K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Albuquerque 99%

Next is Miami at 64.5%. The venues differ most on Atlanta (Polymarket 49.3%, Kalshi 1%), a 48-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Albuquerque
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 35s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Albuquerque
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$253K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miami
64.5%
Polymarket 60%polled, 35s agoKalshi 66%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miami, FL
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miami
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 64¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 69¢.

West Palm Beach
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
West Palm Beach
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minneapolis
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minneapolis
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Atlanta
25.2%
Polymarket 49.3%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atlanta, GA
Last price
49.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Atlanta
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Washington DC
25%
Polymarket 49.1%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington, DC
Last price
49.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Washington DC
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

New Orleans
13%
Polymarket 48.9%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Orleans, LA
Last price
48.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Orleans
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Los AngelesArb
4.4%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Los Angeles, CA
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Los Angeles
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Las Vegas
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco
2.9%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
San Francisco, CA
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Show 25 more outcomes
Seattle
2.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 35s agoKalshi 2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Seattle, WA
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Seattle
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Boston
1.5%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boston, MA
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Philadelphia
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philadelphia, PA
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Philadelphia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Chicago
1.2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chicago, IL
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chicago
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Dallas
1.2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas, TX
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Houston
1.2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Houston, TX
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Houston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Austin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
College Station
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
College Station
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Columbus
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Columbus
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Kalshi
Denver
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denver
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Detroit
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Detroit
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Indianapolis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indianapolis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$937
Trade this on Kalshi
Lexington
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lexington
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Milwaukee
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Milwaukee
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Newark
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Newark
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$95
Trade this on Kalshi
Oklahoma City
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oklahoma City
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pittsburgh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pittsburgh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$937
Trade this on Kalshi
Providence
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Providence
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
San Antonio
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Antonio
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Springfield
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Springfield
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
St. Louis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
St. Louis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tampa
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tampa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Trenton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trenton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
New York City
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
New York, NY
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New York City
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Phoenix
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 35s agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phoenix, AZ
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Phoenix
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Los Angeles on Polymarket at 3¢, sell on Kalshi at 5¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the NWS Daily Climate Report precipitation for each city's station. Kalshi pays on 'strictly greater than 0 inches'; Polymarket on 0.01 in or more and excludes trace. Treat a trace report as a possible split.
  • City lists differ; only cities on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: forecast.weather.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Weather Company
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the NWS Daily Climate Report precipitation for each city's station. Kalshi pays on 'strictly greater than 0 inches'; Polymarket on 0.01 in or more and excludes trace. Treat a trace report as a possible split.
  • City lists differ; only cities on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Albuquerque
  • Miami
  • West Palm Beach

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Albuquerque for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Where will it rain on October 23?". Albuquerque leads at 99%. Next is Miami at 64.5%. $393K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on October 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More climate markets

See all climate markets