Market comparison
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?
2 venues · 24 outcome rows · 9 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗15 outcomes · $221K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Kalshi
Open venue ↗18 outcomes · $9K reported volume
Observed 50s ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Alibaba Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 13.5 pp | ||
Anthropic Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 5.5 pp | ||
DeepSeek Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 6.5 pp | ||
Google Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 48.0 pp | ||
Meta Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 11.0 pp | ||
Mistral Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 5.0 pp | ||
OpenAI Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 71.0 pp | ||
xAI Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 9.5 pp | ||
Z AI Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 22.3 pp | ||
Amazon Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Baidu Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
ByteDance Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
IBM Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
InclusionAI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Meituan Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Microsoft Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
MiniMax Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Moonshot Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Moonshot AI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
NVIDIA Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
StepFun Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Tencent Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Thinking Machines Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Xiaomi Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Alibaba
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 13.5 pp
Anthropic
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 5.5 pp
DeepSeek
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 6.5 pp
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 48.0 pp
Meta
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 11.0 pp
Mistral
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 5.0 pp
OpenAI
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 71.0 pp
xAI
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 9.5 pp
Z AI
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 22.3 pp
Amazon
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Baidu
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
ByteDance
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
IBM
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
InclusionAI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Meituan
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Microsoft
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
MiniMax
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Moonshot
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Moonshot AI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
NVIDIA
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
StepFun
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Tencent
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Thinking Machines
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Xiaomi
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.