Market comparison

Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?

2 venues · 19 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

19 outcomes · $57K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2028

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

6 outcomes · $25K reported volume

Observed 58s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Kalshi names the lead-left underwriter; Polymarket the lead underwriter. Both resolve 'no IPO' to a separate outcome by the same deadline.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Bank of America Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Bank of America Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Bank of America Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
Citigroup Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Citigroup Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Citigroup Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
Goldman Sachs Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	53.5% Bid 39.0% · Ask 68.0% Goldman Sachs Open Polymarket ↗	67.0% Bid 65.0% · Ask 71.0% Goldman Sachs Open Kalshi ↗	13.5 pp
JPMorgan Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% JPMorgan Open Polymarket ↗	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% JPMorgan Chase Open Kalshi ↗	0.8 pp
Morgan Stanley Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	37.0% Bid 24.0% · Ask 50.0% Morgan Stanley Open Polymarket ↗	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0% Morgan Stanley Open Kalshi ↗	15.0 pp
Bank A Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank A · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank B Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank B · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank C Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank C · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank D Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank D · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank E Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank E · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank F Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank F · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank G · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank H Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank H · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Bank I Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bank I · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Barclays Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Barclays Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Deutsche Bank Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Deutsche Bank Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
No Listed Underwriter Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% No Listed Underwriter Open Kalshi ↗	—
UBS Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% UBS Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Wells Fargo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Wells Fargo Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Bank of America

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

Bank of America

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Bank of America

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Citigroup

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

Citigroup

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Citigroup

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Goldman Sachs

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

53.5%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 68.0%

Goldman Sachs

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

67.0%

Bid 65.0% · Ask 71.0%

Goldman Sachs

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 13.5 pp

JPMorgan

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

JPMorgan

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

JPMorgan Chase

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.8 pp

Morgan Stanley

Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.

Polymarket

37.0%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 50.0%

Morgan Stanley

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 23.0%

Morgan Stanley

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 15.0 pp

Bank A

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank A · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank B

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank B · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank C

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank C · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank D

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank D · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank E

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank E · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank F

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank F · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank G

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank G · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank H

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank H · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Bank I

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Bank I · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Barclays

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

Barclays

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Deutsche Bank

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

Deutsche Bank

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

No Listed Underwriter

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

No Listed Underwriter

Open Kalshi ↗

UBS

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

UBS

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Wells Fargo

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3%

Wells Fargo

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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