Market comparison

Which bills will become law in 2026?

2 venues · 33 outcome rows · 14 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

32 outcomes · $641K reported volume

Observed 56s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $188K reported volume

Observed 56s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which bills will become law in 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
2.50 Coin Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.1% Bid 6.1% · Ask 7.7% $2.50 Coin Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% $2.50 Coin Open Polymarket ↗	0.6 pp
AI-chip export licensing Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	17.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 18.0% AI-chip export licensing Open Kalshi ↗	20.5% Bid 16.0% · Ask 25.0% AI-chip export licensing Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
Credit-card routing competition Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	9.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 15.0% Credit-card routing competition Open Kalshi ↗	12.2% Bid 10.0% · Ask 14.3% Credit-card routing competition Open Polymarket ↗	3.1 pp
Critical-minerals stockpile Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.9% Bid 8.1% · Ask 8.9% Critical-minerals stockpile Open Kalshi ↗	10.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 14.0% Critical-minerals stockpile Open Polymarket ↗	1.1 pp
Data center utility cost protection Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	18.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0% Data center utility cost protection Open Kalshi ↗	17.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0% Data center utility cost protection Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
DEFIANCE Act Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.0% Bid 2.1% · Ask 5.7% DEFIANCE Act Open Kalshi ↗	4.4% Bid 2.3% · Ask 6.5% DEFIANCE Act Open Polymarket ↗	0.4 pp
Export-control chip security Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	32.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 32.0% Export-control chip security Open Kalshi ↗	32.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0% Export-control chip security Open Polymarket ↗	0.5 pp
Film/TV production expensing Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	13.0% Bid 2.7% · Ask 13.0% Film/TV production expensing Open Kalshi ↗	6.1% Bid 5.6% · Ask 6.6% Film/TV production expensing Open Polymarket ↗	6.9 pp
Housing for the 21st Century Act Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	96.1% Bid 96.2% · Ask 97.8% Housing for the 21st Century Act · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Housing for the 21st Century Act · closed Open Polymarket ↗	3.9 pp
NO FAKES Act Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0% NO FAKES Act Open Kalshi ↗	12.5% Bid 10.0% · Ask 15.0% NO FAKES Act Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
SELF DRIVE Act Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.2% Bid 1.2% · Ask 3.8% SELF DRIVE Act Open Kalshi ↗	2.9% Bid 1.3% · Ask 4.4% SELF DRIVE Act Open Polymarket ↗	1.7 pp
SHOWER Act Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.9% Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.9% SHOWER Act Open Kalshi ↗	3.4% Bid 1.8% · Ask 5.0% SHOWER Act Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	2.1% Bid 2.1% · Ask 5.0% Smithsonian Women’s History Museum Open Kalshi ↗	4.5% Bid 3.5% · Ask 5.6% Smithsonian Women’s History Museum Open Polymarket ↗	2.4 pp
Trump Airport Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.6% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.7% Trump Airport Open Kalshi ↗	20.3% Bid 2.1% · Ask 38.4% Trump Airport Open Polymarket ↗	15.7 pp
ADS-B revenue-use restriction Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 16.0% ADS-B revenue-use restriction Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 26.0% Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dignity Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0% Dignity Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
E15 year-round sales Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0% E15 year-round sales Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0% Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
FISA Section 702 reauthorization Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.5% Bid 98.1% · Ask 99.8% FISA Section 702 reauthorization (any length) · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
FISA Section 702 reauthorization Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0% FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
FISA Section 702 reauthorization Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	16.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0% FISA Section 702 reauthorization Open Polymarket ↗	—
Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0% Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Insulin cost cap Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 18.0% Insulin cost cap Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
JAWBONE Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% JAWBONE Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jewish American security Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 7.0% Jewish American security Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Protect College Sports Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	31.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 33.0% Protect College Sports Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Railway safety bill Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 17.0% Railway safety bill Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
ROTOR Act Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.5% Bid 3.5% · Ask 4.5% ROTOR Act Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Surface transportation reauthorization Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0% Surface transportation reauthorization Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.7% Bid 0.2% · Ask 3.7% Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
White House ballroom funding Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0% White House ballroom funding Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

2.50 Coin

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.1%

Bid 6.1% · Ask 7.7%

$2.50 Coin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

$2.50 Coin

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

AI-chip export licensing

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 18.0%

AI-chip export licensing

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

20.5%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 25.0%

AI-chip export licensing

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Credit-card routing competition

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 15.0%

Credit-card routing competition

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

12.2%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 14.3%

Credit-card routing competition

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.1 pp

Critical-minerals stockpile

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.9%

Bid 8.1% · Ask 8.9%

Critical-minerals stockpile

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 14.0%

Critical-minerals stockpile

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

Data center utility cost protection

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0%

Data center utility cost protection

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

17.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0%

Data center utility cost protection

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

DEFIANCE Act

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 5.7%

DEFIANCE Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.4%

Bid 2.3% · Ask 6.5%

DEFIANCE Act

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Export-control chip security

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

32.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 32.0%

Export-control chip security

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0%

Export-control chip security

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Film/TV production expensing

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 2.7% · Ask 13.0%

Film/TV production expensing

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

6.1%

Bid 5.6% · Ask 6.6%

Film/TV production expensing

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 6.9 pp

Housing for the 21st Century Act

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

96.1%

Bid 96.2% · Ask 97.8%

Housing for the 21st Century Act · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Housing for the 21st Century Act · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.9 pp

NO FAKES Act

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 11.0%

NO FAKES Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

12.5%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 15.0%

NO FAKES Act

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

SELF DRIVE Act

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.2%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 3.8%

SELF DRIVE Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 4.4%

SELF DRIVE Act

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.7 pp

SHOWER Act

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.9%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 6.9%

SHOWER Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.4%

Bid 1.8% · Ask 5.0%

SHOWER Act

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.5 pp

Smithsonian Women’s History Museum

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.1%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 5.0%

Smithsonian Women’s History Museum

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 3.5% · Ask 5.6%

Smithsonian Women’s History Museum

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.4 pp

Trump Airport

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.6%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.7%

Trump Airport

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

20.3%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 38.4%

Trump Airport

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 15.7 pp

ADS-B revenue-use restriction

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 16.0%

ADS-B revenue-use restriction

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 26.0%

Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dignity Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 7.0%

Dignity Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

E15 year-round sales

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0%

E15 year-round sales

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0%

Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

FISA Section 702 reauthorization

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.5%

Bid 98.1% · Ask 99.8%

FISA Section 702 reauthorization (any length) · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

FISA Section 702 reauthorization

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 16.0%

FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

FISA Section 702 reauthorization

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

16.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0%

FISA Section 702 reauthorization

Open Polymarket ↗

Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0%

Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 17.0%

Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Insulin cost cap

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 18.0%

Insulin cost cap

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

JAWBONE Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0%

JAWBONE Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jewish American security

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 7.0%

Jewish American security

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Protect College Sports Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

31.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 33.0%

Protect College Sports Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Railway safety bill

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 17.0%

Railway safety bill

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

ROTOR Act

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.5%

Bid 3.5% · Ask 4.5%

ROTOR Act

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Surface transportation reauthorization

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0%

Surface transportation reauthorization

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.7%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 3.7%

Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

White House ballroom funding

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0%

White House ballroom funding

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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