Market comparison

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?

1 venue · 35 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

35 outcomes · $3K reported volume

Observed 20s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?
Outcome	Kalshi	Difference
Affirm Holdings Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 15.0% Affirm Holdings Open Kalshi ↗	—
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0% Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Open Kalshi ↗	—
Astera Labs Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 27.0% Astera Labs Open Kalshi ↗	—
ATI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% ATI Open Kalshi ↗	—
Atlassian Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Atlassian Open Kalshi ↗	—
BWX Technologies Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0% BWX Technologies Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cerebras Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Cerebras Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cheniere Energy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0% Cheniere Energy Open Kalshi ↗	—
Circle Internet Group Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Circle Internet Group Open Kalshi ↗	—
Cloudflare Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0% Cloudflare Open Kalshi ↗	—
CoreWeave Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% CoreWeave Open Kalshi ↗	—
Credo Technology Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% Credo Technology Open Kalshi ↗	—
Curtiss-Wright Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0% Curtiss-Wright Open Kalshi ↗	—
Duolingo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0% Duolingo Open Kalshi ↗	—
Guidewire Software Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0% Guidewire Software Open Kalshi ↗	—
HEICO Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0% HEICO Open Kalshi ↗	—
LPL Financial Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% LPL Financial Open Kalshi ↗	—
Medline Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Medline Open Kalshi ↗	—
MongoDB Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0% MongoDB Open Kalshi ↗	—
Natera Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Natera Open Kalshi ↗	—
Okta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 100.0% Okta Open Kalshi ↗	—
Roblox Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0% Roblox Open Kalshi ↗	—
Rocket Companies Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Rocket Companies Open Kalshi ↗	—
Snowflake Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Snowflake Open Kalshi ↗	—
SoFi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0% SoFi Open Kalshi ↗	—
Southern Copper Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 13.0% Southern Copper Open Kalshi ↗	—
SpaceX Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% SpaceX Open Kalshi ↗	—
Strategy (MicroStrategy) Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0% Strategy (MicroStrategy) Open Kalshi ↗	—
Talen Energy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0% Talen Energy Open Kalshi ↗	—
Toast Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0% Toast Open Kalshi ↗	—
TPG Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% TPG Open Kalshi ↗	—
Tradeweb Markets Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Tradeweb Markets Open Kalshi ↗	—
Twilio Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 96.0% · Ask 100.0% Twilio Open Kalshi ↗	—
Venture Global Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0% Venture Global Open Kalshi ↗	—
Zoom Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Zoom Open Kalshi ↗	—

Affirm Holdings

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 15.0%

Affirm Holdings

Open Kalshi ↗

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0%

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

Open Kalshi ↗

Astera Labs

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 27.0%

Astera Labs

Open Kalshi ↗

ATI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

ATI

Open Kalshi ↗

Atlassian

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Atlassian

Open Kalshi ↗

BWX Technologies

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0%

BWX Technologies

Open Kalshi ↗

Cerebras

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Cerebras

Open Kalshi ↗

Cheniere Energy

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0%

Cheniere Energy

Open Kalshi ↗

Circle Internet Group

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Circle Internet Group

Open Kalshi ↗

Cloudflare

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0%

Cloudflare

Open Kalshi ↗

CoreWeave

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

CoreWeave

Open Kalshi ↗

Credo Technology

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0%

Credo Technology

Open Kalshi ↗

Curtiss-Wright

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0%

Curtiss-Wright

Open Kalshi ↗

Duolingo

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0%

Duolingo

Open Kalshi ↗

Guidewire Software

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0%

Guidewire Software

Open Kalshi ↗

HEICO

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0%

HEICO

Open Kalshi ↗

LPL Financial

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

LPL Financial

Open Kalshi ↗

Medline

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Medline

Open Kalshi ↗

MongoDB

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0%

MongoDB

Open Kalshi ↗

Natera

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Natera

Open Kalshi ↗

Okta

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 100.0%

Okta

Open Kalshi ↗

Roblox

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0%

Roblox

Open Kalshi ↗

Rocket Companies

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Rocket Companies

Open Kalshi ↗

Snowflake

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Snowflake

Open Kalshi ↗

SoFi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 10.0%

SoFi

Open Kalshi ↗

Southern Copper

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 13.0%

Southern Copper

Open Kalshi ↗

SpaceX

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0%

SpaceX

Open Kalshi ↗

Strategy (MicroStrategy)

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 4.0%

Strategy (MicroStrategy)

Open Kalshi ↗

Talen Energy

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0%

Talen Energy

Open Kalshi ↗

Toast

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 10.0%

Toast

Open Kalshi ↗

TPG

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

TPG

Open Kalshi ↗

Tradeweb Markets

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Tradeweb Markets

Open Kalshi ↗

Twilio

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 96.0% · Ask 100.0%

Twilio

Open Kalshi ↗

Venture Global

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 13.0%

Venture Global

Open Kalshi ↗

Zoom

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Zoom

Open Kalshi ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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