Market comparison

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

2 venues · 26 outcome rows · 11 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

33 outcomes · $441K reported volume

Observed 36s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $220K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Alibaba Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% Alibaba Open Kalshi ↗ 18.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 21.0% Alibaba Open Kalshi ↗	4.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Alibaba Open Polymarket ↗	—
Anthropic Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	84.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Anthropic · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 81.0% Bid 78.0% · Ask 84.0% Anthropic Open Kalshi ↗	74.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 77.0% Anthropic Open Polymarket ↗	—
Baidu Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Baidu Open Kalshi ↗	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% Baidu Open Polymarket ↗	0.0 pp
ByteDance Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% ByteDance Open Kalshi ↗	0.6% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.9% ByteDance Open Polymarket ↗	0.4 pp
Deepseek Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Deepseek Open Kalshi ↗ 12.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 19.0% DeepSeek Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% DeepSeek Open Polymarket ↗	—
Google Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Google · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 52.0% Bid 50.0% · Ask 59.0% Google Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0% Google · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Meta Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	9.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 10.0% Meta Open Kalshi ↗ 20.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 24.0% Meta Open Kalshi ↗	9.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 10.0% Meta Open Polymarket ↗	—
Mistral Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Mistral Open Kalshi ↗ 7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Mistral Open Kalshi ↗	2.5% Bid 2.1% · Ask 3.0% Mistral Open Polymarket ↗	—
OpenAI Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	18.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0% OpenAI Open Kalshi ↗ 85.0% Bid 79.0% · Ask 88.0% OpenAI Open Kalshi ↗	14.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 15.0% OpenAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
xAI Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0% xAI Open Kalshi ↗ 16.5% Bid 12.0% · Ask 21.0% xAI Open Kalshi ↗	7.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% xAI Open Polymarket ↗	—
Z AI Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Z.ai Open Kalshi ↗ 26.5% Bid 22.0% · Ask 31.0% Z AI Open Kalshi ↗	4.2% Bid 4.0% · Ask 4.4% Z.ai Open Polymarket ↗	—
01A1 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 01A1 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Amazon Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.7% Bid 2.1% · Ask 7.2% Amazon Open Polymarket ↗	—
IBM Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% IBM Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
InclusionAI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0% InclusionAI Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Meituan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 1.8% · Ask 3.2% Meituan Open Polymarket ↗	—
Microsoft Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.5% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% Microsoft Open Polymarket ↗	—
MiniMax Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% MiniMax Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Moonshot Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.8% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.6% Moonshot Open Polymarket ↗	—
Moonshot AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Moonshot AI Open Kalshi ↗ 10.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 14.0% Moonshot AI Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nvidia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Nvidia Open Kalshi ↗ 7.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% NVIDIA Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
StepFun Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% StepFun Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tencent Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 19.0% Tencent Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Thinking Machines Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 11.0% Thinking Machines Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Xiaomi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	55.0% Bid 53.0% · Ask 62.0% Xiaomi Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Z AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.0% Zhipu AI Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Alibaba

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0%

Alibaba

Open Kalshi ↗

18.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 21.0%

Alibaba

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Alibaba

Open Polymarket ↗

Anthropic

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

84.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Anthropic · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

81.0%

Bid 78.0% · Ask 84.0%

Anthropic

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

74.0%

Bid 71.0% · Ask 77.0%

Anthropic

Open Polymarket ↗

Baidu

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0%

Baidu

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

Baidu

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

ByteDance

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

ByteDance

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.9%

ByteDance

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Deepseek

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Deepseek

Open Kalshi ↗

12.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 19.0%

DeepSeek

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0%

DeepSeek

Open Polymarket ↗

Google

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Google · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

52.0%

Bid 50.0% · Ask 59.0%

Google

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.1% · Ask 100.0%

Google · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Mistral

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Mistral

Open Kalshi ↗

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Mistral

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 3.0%

Mistral

Open Polymarket ↗

OpenAI

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0%

OpenAI

Open Kalshi ↗

85.0%

Bid 79.0% · Ask 88.0%

OpenAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 15.0%

OpenAI

Open Polymarket ↗

xAI

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 10.0%

xAI

Open Kalshi ↗

16.5%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 21.0%

xAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0%

xAI

Open Polymarket ↗

Z AI

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0%

Z.ai

Open Kalshi ↗

26.5%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 31.0%

Z AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 4.4%

Z.ai

Open Polymarket ↗

01A1

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

01A1

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Amazon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 2.1% · Ask 7.2%

Amazon

Open Polymarket ↗

IBM

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0%

IBM

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

InclusionAI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 9.0%

InclusionAI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Meituan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 1.8% · Ask 3.2%

Meituan

Open Polymarket ↗

Microsoft

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0%

Microsoft

Open Polymarket ↗

MiniMax

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

MiniMax

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Moonshot

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.6%

Moonshot

Open Polymarket ↗

Moonshot AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Moonshot AI

Open Kalshi ↗

10.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 14.0%

Moonshot AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nvidia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Nvidia

Open Kalshi ↗

7.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

NVIDIA

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

StepFun

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

StepFun

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tencent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 19.0%

Tencent

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Thinking Machines

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 11.0%

Thinking Machines

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Xiaomi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

55.0%

Bid 53.0% · Ask 62.0%

Xiaomi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Z AI

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.0%

Zhipu AI

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

View event details, charts and rules →Explore more markets

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Kalshi

Polymarket

Alibaba

Kalshi

Polymarket

Anthropic

Kalshi

Polymarket

Baidu

Kalshi

Polymarket

ByteDance

Kalshi

Polymarket

Deepseek

Kalshi

Polymarket

Google

Kalshi

Polymarket

Meta

Kalshi

Polymarket

Mistral

Kalshi

Polymarket

OpenAI

Kalshi

Polymarket

xAI

Kalshi

Polymarket

Z AI

Kalshi

Polymarket

01A1

Kalshi

Polymarket

Amazon

Kalshi

Polymarket

IBM

Kalshi

Polymarket

InclusionAI

Kalshi

Polymarket

Meituan

Kalshi

Polymarket

Microsoft

Kalshi

Polymarket

MiniMax

Kalshi

Polymarket

Moonshot

Kalshi

Polymarket

Moonshot AI

Kalshi

Polymarket

Nvidia

Kalshi

Polymarket

StepFun

Kalshi

Polymarket

Tencent

Kalshi

Polymarket

Thinking Machines

Kalshi

Polymarket

Xiaomi

Kalshi

Polymarket

Z AI

Kalshi