Market comparison
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
2 venues · 26 outcome rows · 8 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗26 outcomes · $2.9M reported volume
Observed 10s ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗9 outcomes · $1.2M reported volume
Observed 3m ago
Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Alibaba Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.6 pp | ||
Anthropic Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 28.5 pp | ||
Baidu Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.9 pp | ||
DeepSeek Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.7 pp | ||
Google Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 40.0 pp | ||
OpenAI Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 12.2 pp | ||
xAI Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.9 pp | ||
Z.ai Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.8 pp | ||
Amazon Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
ByteDance Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company A Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company B Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company C Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company D Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company E Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company F Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company G Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company H Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company I Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Company K Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Meituan Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Meta Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Microsoft Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Mistral Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Moonshot Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Moonshot AI Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Alibaba
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.6 pp
Anthropic
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 28.5 pp
Baidu
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
DeepSeek
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.7 pp
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 40.0 pp
OpenAI
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 12.2 pp
xAI
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Z.ai
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.8 pp
Amazon
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
ByteDance
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company A
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company B
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company C
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company D
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company E
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company F
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company G
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company H
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company I
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Company K
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Meituan
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Meta
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Microsoft
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Mistral
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Moonshot
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Moonshot AI
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.