Market comparison

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

2 venues · 14 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

10 outcomes · $93K reported volume

Observed 28s ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2028

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2029

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	2.0% Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.0% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Open Kalshi ↗	2.9% Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.0% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Open Polymarket ↗	0.9 pp
Andy Beshear Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	22.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 22.0% Andy Beshear Open Kalshi ↗	17.5% Bid 14.0% · Ask 21.0% Andy Beshear Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
Gavin Newsom Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0% Gavin Newsom Open Kalshi ↗	17.1% Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.1% Gavin Newsom Open Polymarket ↗	5.1 pp
Jon Ossoff Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	3.8% Bid 2.5% · Ask 3.8% Jon Ossoff Open Kalshi ↗	1.9% Bid 0.5% · Ask 3.4% Jon Ossoff Open Polymarket ↗	1.8 pp
Josh Shapiro Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.3% Bid 3.7% · Ask 4.3% Josh Shapiro Open Kalshi ↗	24.7% Bid 0.7% · Ask 48.7% Josh Shapiro Open Polymarket ↗	20.4 pp
Kamala Harris Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.9% Kamala Harris Open Kalshi ↗	12.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0% Kamala Harris Open Polymarket ↗	7.1 pp
Pete Buttigieg Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	34.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0% Pete Buttigieg Open Kalshi ↗	32.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 41.0% Pete Buttigieg Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Gretchen Whitmer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.9% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.9% Gretchen Whitmer Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
J.B. Pritzker Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.1% Bid 5.0% · Ask 5.1% J.B. Pritzker Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jon Stewart Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5% Jon Stewart Open Polymarket ↗	—
Rahm Emanuel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	22.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0% Rahm Emanuel Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ro Khanna Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	12.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 17.0% Ro Khanna Open Polymarket ↗	—
Stephen A. Smith Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.6% Stephen A. Smith Open Polymarket ↗	—
Wes Moore Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.1% Bid 3.0% · Ask 3.1% Wes Moore Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 2.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Andy Beshear

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 22.0%

Andy Beshear

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

17.5%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 21.0%

Andy Beshear

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

Gavin Newsom

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 19.0%

Gavin Newsom

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

17.1%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.1%

Gavin Newsom

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.1 pp

Jon Ossoff

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

3.8%

Bid 2.5% · Ask 3.8%

Jon Ossoff

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 3.4%

Jon Ossoff

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

Josh Shapiro

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.3%

Bid 3.7% · Ask 4.3%

Josh Shapiro

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

24.7%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 48.7%

Josh Shapiro

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 20.4 pp

Kamala Harris

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.9%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.9%

Kamala Harris

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0%

Kamala Harris

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 7.1 pp

Pete Buttigieg

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 34.0%

Pete Buttigieg

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

32.5%

Bid 24.0% · Ask 41.0%

Pete Buttigieg

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Gretchen Whitmer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.9%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.9%

Gretchen Whitmer

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

J.B. Pritzker

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.1%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 5.1%

J.B. Pritzker

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jon Stewart

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.5%

Jon Stewart

Open Polymarket ↗

Rahm Emanuel

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

22.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 28.0%

Rahm Emanuel

Open Polymarket ↗

Ro Khanna

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

12.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 17.0%

Ro Khanna

Open Polymarket ↗

Stephen A. Smith

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.6%

Stephen A. Smith

Open Polymarket ↗

Wes Moore

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.1%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 3.1%

Wes Moore

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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