Market comparison

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

2 venues · 16 outcome rows · 11 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

15 outcomes · $319K reported volume

Observed 50s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

12 outcomes · $60K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Andy Kim Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 7.9% · Ask 8.0% Andy Kim Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0% Andy Kim Open Kalshi ↗	0.9 pp
Catherine Cortez Masto Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	4.8% Bid 4.6% · Ask 5.0% Catherine Cortez Masto Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0% Catherine Cortez Masto Open Kalshi ↗	1.2 pp
Jerry Moran Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.8% Bid 7.2% · Ask 8.3% Jerry Moran Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 13.0% Jerry Moran Open Kalshi ↗	0.7 pp
Josh Hawley Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.7% Bid 5.5% · Ask 5.9% Josh Hawley Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Josh Hawley Open Kalshi ↗	0.3 pp
Kirsten Gillibrand Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	7.5% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Kirsten Gillibrand Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% Kirsten Gillibrand Open Kalshi ↗	0.5 pp
Lisa Blunt Rochester Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% Lisa Blunt Rochester Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0% Lisa Blunt Rochester Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
Mark Warner Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.1% Bid 6.0% · Ask 6.2% Mark Warner Open Polymarket ↗	8.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0% Mark Warner Open Kalshi ↗	1.9 pp
Mike Lee Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	9.4% Bid 9.4% · Ask 9.5% Mike Lee Open Polymarket ↗	7.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0% Mike Lee Open Kalshi ↗	2.4 pp
Rand Paul Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.1% Bid 5.1% · Ask 5.2% Rand Paul Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Rand Paul Open Kalshi ↗	2.1 pp
Raphael Warnock Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.6% Bid 8.4% · Ask 8.7% Raphael Warnock Open Polymarket ↗	6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Raphael Warnock Open Kalshi ↗	2.6 pp
Ruben Gallego Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.9% Bid 6.5% · Ask 7.3% Ruben Gallego Open Polymarket ↗	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0% Ruben Gallego Open Kalshi ↗	3.9 pp
Alex Padilla Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.8% Bid 6.7% · Ask 6.8% Alex Padilla Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Angela Alsobrooks Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Angela Alsobrooks Open Kalshi ↗	—
Jacky Rosen Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.2% Bid 7.0% · Ask 7.4% Jacky Rosen Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
John Fetterman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 7.1% John Fetterman Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Thom Tillis Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0% Thom Tillis Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Andy Kim

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 7.9% · Ask 8.0%

Andy Kim

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0%

Andy Kim

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Catherine Cortez Masto

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

4.8%

Bid 4.6% · Ask 5.0%

Catherine Cortez Masto

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0%

Catherine Cortez Masto

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.2 pp

Jerry Moran

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

7.8%

Bid 7.2% · Ask 8.3%

Jerry Moran

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 13.0%

Jerry Moran

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.7 pp

Josh Hawley

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

5.7%

Bid 5.5% · Ask 5.9%

Josh Hawley

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0%

Josh Hawley

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.3 pp

Kirsten Gillibrand

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0%

Kirsten Gillibrand

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

Kirsten Gillibrand

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Lisa Blunt Rochester

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0%

Lisa Blunt Rochester

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0%

Lisa Blunt Rochester

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.0 pp

Mark Warner

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

6.1%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 6.2%

Mark Warner

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 8.0%

Mark Warner

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Mike Lee

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

9.4%

Bid 9.4% · Ask 9.5%

Mike Lee

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 7.0%

Mike Lee

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.4 pp

Rand Paul

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

5.1%

Bid 5.1% · Ask 5.2%

Rand Paul

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Rand Paul

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.1 pp

Raphael Warnock

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

8.6%

Bid 8.4% · Ask 8.7%

Raphael Warnock

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0%

Raphael Warnock

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 2.6 pp

Ruben Gallego

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Polymarket

6.9%

Bid 6.5% · Ask 7.3%

Ruben Gallego

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0%

Ruben Gallego

Open Kalshi ↗

Price difference 3.9 pp

Alex Padilla

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

6.8%

Bid 6.7% · Ask 6.8%

Alex Padilla

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Angela Alsobrooks

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

—

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0%

Angela Alsobrooks

Open Kalshi ↗

Jacky Rosen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.2%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 7.4%

Jacky Rosen

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

John Fetterman

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

7.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 7.1%

John Fetterman

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Thom Tillis

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Polymarket

10.0%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 11.0%

Thom Tillis

Open Polymarket ↗

Kalshi

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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