Market comparison

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

2 venues · 44 outcome rows · 14 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

55 outcomes · $180K reported volume

Observed 10s ago

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

14 outcomes · $28K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Nov 3, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Alaska Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Alaska · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Alaska · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Arizona Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	98.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Arizona · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Arizona · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 98.5% · Ask 100.0% Arizona · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Georgia Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Georgia · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 97.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Georgia · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Georgia · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Iowa Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Iowa · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Iowa · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Kansas Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Kansas · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Kansas · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Kansas · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Maine Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 17.0% Maine Open Kalshi ↗	35.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 47.0% Maine Open Polymarket ↗	24.0 pp
Michigan Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Michigan · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 98.0% Bid 93.0% · Ask 99.0% Michigan Open Kalshi ↗	98.3% Bid 96.9% · Ask 99.6% Michigan Open Polymarket ↗	—
Nevada Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Nevada · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Nevada · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Nevada · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
New Hampshire Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	35.0% Bid 31.0% · Ask 38.0% New Hampshire Open Kalshi ↗ 6.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0% New Hampshire Open Kalshi ↗	10.5% Bid 9.0% · Ask 12.0% New Hampshire Open Polymarket ↗	—
North Carolina Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% North Carolina · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% North Carolina · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% North Carolina · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—
Ohio Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Ohio · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Ohio · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Oregon Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	18.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 23.0% Oregon Open Kalshi ↗	41.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 72.0% Oregon Open Polymarket ↗	23.0 pp
Texas Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Texas · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Texas · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Wisconsin Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Wisconsin · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 19.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 21.0% Wisconsin Open Kalshi ↗	40.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 42.0% Wisconsin Open Polymarket ↗	—
Alabama Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Alabama · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Arkansas Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	26.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 28.0% Arkansas Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
California Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% California · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Colorado Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 41.0% Colorado Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hawaii Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 8.0% · Ask 14.0% Hawaii Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Idaho Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	27.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0% Idaho Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Illinois Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	92.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Illinois · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Indiana Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 39.0% Indiana Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kentucky Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	94.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Kentucky · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Louisiana Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	33.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 41.0% Louisiana Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Maryland Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Maryland · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Massachusetts Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	17.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 26.0% Massachusetts Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Minnesota Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	70.0% Bid 62.0% · Ask 70.0% Minnesota Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mississippi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Mississippi Open Kalshi ↗ 98.0% Bid 94.0% · Ask 98.0% Mississippi Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Missouri Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	32.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0% Missouri Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Montana Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Montana · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nebraska Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Nebraska · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
New England Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% New England · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
New Mexico Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	43.0% Bid 33.0% · Ask 43.0% New Mexico Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
New York Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% New York · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Oklahoma Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	96.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Oklahoma · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Pennsylvania Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Pennsylvania · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 25.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0% Pennsylvania Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Rhode Island Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 23.0% Rhode Island Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
South Carolina Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% South Carolina · closed Open Kalshi ↗ 99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% South Carolina · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Utah Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	36.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 36.0% Utah Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Vermont Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 12.0% Vermont Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Virginia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0% Virginia · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Washington Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 31.0% Washington Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
West Virginia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	37.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 42.0% West Virginia Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Wyoming Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	34.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0% Wyoming Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Alaska

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Alaska · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Alaska · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Arizona

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Arizona · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Arizona · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 98.5% · Ask 100.0%

Arizona · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Georgia

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Georgia · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

97.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Georgia · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Georgia · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Iowa

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Iowa · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Iowa · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Kansas

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Kansas · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Kansas · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Kansas · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Maine

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 17.0%

Maine

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

35.0%

Bid 23.0% · Ask 47.0%

Maine

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 24.0 pp

Michigan

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Michigan · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

98.0%

Bid 93.0% · Ask 99.0%

Michigan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

98.3%

Bid 96.9% · Ask 99.6%

Michigan

Open Polymarket ↗

Nevada

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Nevada · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Nevada · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Nevada · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

New Hampshire

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

35.0%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 38.0%

New Hampshire

Open Kalshi ↗

6.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 8.0%

New Hampshire

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

10.5%

Bid 9.0% · Ask 12.0%

New Hampshire

Open Polymarket ↗

North Carolina

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

North Carolina · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

North Carolina · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

North Carolina · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Ohio

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Ohio · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Ohio · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Oregon

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 23.0%

Oregon

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

41.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 72.0%

Oregon

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 23.0 pp

Texas

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Texas · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

100.0%

Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0%

Texas · closed

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.0 pp

Wisconsin

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Wisconsin · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

19.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 21.0%

Wisconsin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

40.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 42.0%

Wisconsin

Open Polymarket ↗

Alabama

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Alabama · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Arkansas

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

26.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 28.0%

Arkansas

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

California

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

California · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Colorado

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 41.0%

Colorado

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Hawaii

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 8.0% · Ask 14.0%

Hawaii

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Idaho

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

27.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0%

Idaho

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Illinois

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

92.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Illinois · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Indiana

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 39.0%

Indiana

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kentucky

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

94.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Kentucky · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Louisiana

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 41.0%

Louisiana

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Maryland

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Maryland · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Massachusetts

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 26.0%

Massachusetts

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Minnesota

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

70.0%

Bid 62.0% · Ask 70.0%

Minnesota

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mississippi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Mississippi

Open Kalshi ↗

98.0%

Bid 94.0% · Ask 98.0%

Mississippi

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Missouri

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

32.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0%

Missouri

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Montana

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Montana · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Nebraska

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Nebraska · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

New England

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

New England · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

New Mexico

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

43.0%

Bid 33.0% · Ask 43.0%

New Mexico

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

New York

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

New York · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Oklahoma

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

96.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Oklahoma · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Pennsylvania

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Pennsylvania · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

25.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0%

Pennsylvania

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Rhode Island

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 23.0%

Rhode Island

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

South Carolina

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

South Carolina · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

South Carolina · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Utah

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

36.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 36.0%

Utah

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Vermont

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

7.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 12.0%

Vermont

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Virginia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 98.0% · Ask 99.0%

Virginia · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Washington

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 21.0% · Ask 31.0%

Washington

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

West Virginia

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

37.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 42.0%

West Virginia

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Wyoming

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

34.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 34.0%

Wyoming

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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