Market comparison
Who will be British Columbia's Premier after the election?
2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗33 outcomes · $220K reported volume
Observed 3m ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2026
Kalshi
Open venue ↗7 outcomes · $19K reported volume
Observed 9s ago
Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2027
Known rule differences between venues
- Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
- Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
- If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Dallas Brodie Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
David Eby Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 3.5 pp | ||
Emily Lowan Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
John Rustad Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 0.9 pp | ||
Lorne Doerkson Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.5 pp | ||
Brenda Bailey Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Niki Sharma Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Peter Milobar Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Dallas Brodie
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
David Eby
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 3.5 pp
Emily Lowan
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
John Rustad
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 0.9 pp
Lorne Doerkson
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.5 pp
Brenda Bailey
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Niki Sharma
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
—
Kalshi
Peter Milobar
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Polymarket
Kalshi
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.