Market comparison
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
2 venues · 24 outcome rows · 7 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active
Kalshi
Open venue ↗10 outcomes · $93K reported volume
Observed 38s ago
Recorded venue end date: Nov 7, 2028
Polymarket
Open venue ↗23 outcomes · $28K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2029
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 0.9 pp | ||
Andy Beshear Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 4.5 pp | ||
Gavin Newsom Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 5.1 pp | ||
Jon Ossoff Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.9 pp | ||
Josh Shapiro Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 5.4 pp | ||
Kamala Harris Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 7.1 pp | ||
Pete Buttigieg Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified. | 1.5 pp | ||
Donald Trump Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Donald Trump Jr. Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Glenn Youngkin Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Gretchen Whitmer Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
J.B. Pritzker Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
J.D. Vance Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Jon Stewart Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Marco Rubio Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Marjorie Taylor Greene Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Rahm Emanuel Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Rand Paul Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ro Khanna Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ron DeSantis Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Stephen A. Smith Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Ted Cruz Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Vivek Ramaswamy Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — | |
Wes Moore Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts. | — | — |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 0.9 pp
Andy Beshear
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 4.5 pp
Gavin Newsom
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 5.1 pp
Jon Ossoff
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.9 pp
Josh Shapiro
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 5.4 pp
Kamala Harris
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 7.1 pp
Pete Buttigieg
Same label, rules unverifiedLabels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Price difference 1.5 pp
Donald Trump
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Glenn Youngkin
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Gretchen Whitmer
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
J.B. Pritzker
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
J.D. Vance
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Jon Stewart
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Marco Rubio
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Rahm Emanuel
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Rand Paul
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Ro Khanna
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Ron DeSantis
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Stephen A. Smith
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Ted Cruz
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Vivek Ramaswamy
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
Wes Moore
Not alignedNo persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.
Kalshi
Polymarket
—
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.