The Prediction Markets

Market comparison

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

2 venues · 48 outcome rows · 22 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

48 outcomes · $328K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Observed 7s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 20, 2029

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

23 outcomes · $138K reported volume

Observed 7s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Alan Campbell

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Alan Campbell

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

6.1%

Bid 1.2% · Ask 11.0%

Alan Campbell

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.1 pp

Alex Norris

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Alex Norris

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 9.1%

Alex Norris

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.0 pp

Angela Eagle

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0%

Angela Eagle

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.4%

Bid 1.6% · Ask 5.2%

Angela Eagle

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.4 pp

Angela Rayner

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Angela Rayner

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 7.8%

Angela Rayner

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.1 pp

Angela Smith

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Angela Smith

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.4%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 8.3%

Angela Smith

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.4 pp

Anneliese Midgley

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Anneliese Midgley

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 3.4%

Anneliese Midgley

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.2 pp

Bridget Phillipson

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Bridget Phillipson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

15.3%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 29.8%

Bridget Phillipson

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 11.2 pp

Chris Bryant

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Chris Bryant

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.9%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.1%

Chris Bryant

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

Douglas Alexander

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Douglas Alexander

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 0.9% · Ask 7.2%

Douglas Alexander

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.1 pp

Ed Miliband

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Ed Miliband

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.3%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 5.9%

Ed Miliband

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.3 pp

Heidi Alexander

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Heidi Alexander

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 8.3%

Heidi Alexander

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

John Healey

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 18.0%

John Healey

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0%

John Healey

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.5 pp

Jonathan Reynolds

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

4.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Jonathan Reynolds

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 9.3%

Jonathan Reynolds

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.9 pp

Lisa Nandy

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Lisa Nandy

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.3%

Lisa Nandy

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.1 pp

Louise Haigh

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Louise Haigh

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.3%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 6.0%

Louise Haigh

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.3 pp

Lucy Powell

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 6.0%

Lucy Powell

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.5%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.8%

Lucy Powell

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.6 pp

Miatta Fahnbulleh

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 13.0%

Miatta Fahnbulleh

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.0%

Bid 0.7% · Ask 5.4%

Miatta Fahnbulleh

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.0 pp

Pat McFadden

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Pat McFadden

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 4.4%

Pat McFadden

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.5 pp

Shabana Mahmood

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Shabana Mahmood

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

2.8%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.5%

Shabana Mahmood

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.8 pp

Stephen Kinnock

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 7.0%

Stephen Kinnock

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.2%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.3%

Stephen Kinnock

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.2 pp

Wes Streeting

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Wes Streeting

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.5%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0%

Wes Streeting

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Yvette Cooper

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Yvette Cooper

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 8.8%

Yvette Cooper

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.7 pp

Brooke Rollins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Brooke Rollins

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Chris Wright

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Chris Wright

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Christopher Phelan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Christopher Phelan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Doug Burgum

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Doug Burgum

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Doug Collins

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Doug Collins

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Howard Lutnick

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0%

Howard Lutnick

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Indeterminate

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Indeterminate

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jamieson Greer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Jamieson Greer

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Jay Clayton

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Jay Clayton

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

John Ratcliffe

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

John Ratcliffe

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Keith Sonderling

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Keith Sonderling

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kelly Loeffler

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Kelly Loeffler

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Lee Zeldin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Lee Zeldin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Linda McMahon

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Linda McMahon

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Marco Rubio

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0%

Marco Rubio

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Markwayne Mullin

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0%

Markwayne Mullin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Michael Kratsios

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Michael Kratsios

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mike Waltz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Mike Waltz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Pete Hegseth

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

30.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 32.0%

Pete Hegseth

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Russell Vought

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0%

Russell Vought

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Scott Bessent

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0%

Scott Bessent

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Scott Turner

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Scott Turner

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Sean Duffy

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Sean Duffy

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Susie Wiles

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 20.0% · Ask 22.0%

Susie Wiles

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Todd Blanche

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0%

Todd Blanche

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.