Market comparison

Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

2 venues · 9 outcome rows · 8 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

9 outcomes · $12K reported volume

Observed 10s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 8, 2030

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

29 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 19, 2029

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Adam Telle Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	41.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 47.0% Adam Telle Open Kalshi ↗	36.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 70.0% Adam Telle Open Polymarket ↗	4.5 pp
Brent Ingraham Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% Brent Ingraham Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0% Brent Ingraham Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Brian Mast Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Brian Mast Open Kalshi ↗	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Brian Mast Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Charles Young III Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% Charles Young III Open Kalshi ↗	4.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.0% Charles Young III Open Polymarket ↗	1.9 pp
Marc Andersen Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% Marc Andersen Open Kalshi ↗	14.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 23.0% Marc Andersen Open Polymarket ↗	6.0 pp
Michael Obadal Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Michael Obadal Open Kalshi ↗	8.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0% Michael Obadal Open Polymarket ↗	0.0 pp
Sean Parnell Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	24.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0% Sean Parnell Open Kalshi ↗	19.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 22.0% Sean Parnell Open Polymarket ↗	5.0 pp
W. Jordan Gillis Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% W. Jordan Gillis Open Kalshi ↗	10.3% Bid 1.5% · Ask 19.0% W. Jordan Gillis Open Polymarket ↗	2.2 pp
Derrick Anderson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% Derrick Anderson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Adam Telle

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 47.0%

Adam Telle

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

36.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 70.0%

Adam Telle

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.5 pp

Brent Ingraham

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0%

Brent Ingraham

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0%

Brent Ingraham

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Brian Mast

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0%

Brian Mast

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Brian Mast

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.5 pp

Charles Young III

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

6.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0%

Charles Young III

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.0%

Charles Young III

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.9 pp

Marc Andersen

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0%

Marc Andersen

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 23.0%

Marc Andersen

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 6.0 pp

Michael Obadal

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0%

Michael Obadal

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0%

Michael Obadal

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 0.0 pp

Sean Parnell

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

24.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0%

Sean Parnell

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 22.0%

Sean Parnell

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.0 pp

W. Jordan Gillis

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0%

W. Jordan Gillis

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

10.3%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 19.0%

W. Jordan Gillis

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 2.2 pp

Derrick Anderson

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0%

Derrick Anderson

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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