Market comparison

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

2 venues · 87 outcome rows · 8 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

88 outcomes · $2.8M reported volume

Observed 17s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 27, 2029

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

29 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 19, 2029

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Adam Telle Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	41.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 47.0% Adam Telle Open Kalshi ↗	37.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 71.0% Adam Telle Open Polymarket ↗	4.0 pp
Brent Ingraham Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% Brent Ingraham Open Kalshi ↗	5.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0% Brent Ingraham Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Brian Mast Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Brian Mast Open Kalshi ↗	8.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 12.0% Brian Mast Open Polymarket ↗	3.0 pp
Charles Young III Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	6.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% Charles Young III Open Kalshi ↗	4.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.0% Charles Young III Open Polymarket ↗	1.9 pp
Marc Andersen Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% Marc Andersen Open Kalshi ↗	14.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 24.0% Marc Andersen Open Polymarket ↗	6.5 pp
Michael Obadal Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Michael Obadal Open Kalshi ↗	8.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0% Michael Obadal Open Polymarket ↗	0.0 pp
Sean Parnell Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	24.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0% Sean Parnell Open Kalshi ↗	17.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 19.0% Sean Parnell Open Polymarket ↗	7.0 pp
W. Jordan Gillis Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 8.0% W. Jordan Gillis Open Kalshi ↗	10.1% Bid 2.2% · Ask 17.9% W. Jordan Gillis Open Polymarket ↗	2.1 pp
Alina Habba Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Alina Habba Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Anna Kelly Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	19.0% Bid 18.0% · Ask 19.0% Anna Kelly Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ari Fleischer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Ari Fleischer Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ben Ferguson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Ben Ferguson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ben Shapiro Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Ben Shapiro Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Beni Rae Harmony Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Beni Rae Harmony Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Benny Johnson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Benny Johnson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bill Hagerty Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0% Bill Hagerty Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Cara Castronuova Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Cara Castronuova Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Christopher Miller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0% Christopher Miller Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dan Bongino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Dan Bongino Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dan Driscoll Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 21.0% Dan Driscoll Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Danielle Alvarez Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Danielle Alvarez Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Derrick Anderson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 8.0% Derrick Anderson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Elbridge Colby Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Elbridge Colby Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Elizabeth Pipko Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Elizabeth Pipko Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Eric Daugherty Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Eric Daugherty Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Erika Kirk Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Erika Kirk Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Erin Elmore Scavino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Erin Elmore Scavino Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
George Santos Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% George Santos Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Harrison Fields Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid — · Ask 3.0% Harrison Fields Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Hogan Gidley Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Hogan Gidley Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jack Posobiec Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jack Posobiec Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jake Paul Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jake Paul Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jason Miller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jason Miller Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jayme Franklin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Jayme Franklin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Joe Sweeney Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Joe Sweeney Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Joni Ernst Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.2% Bid 2.2% · Ask 9.2% Joni Ernst Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kaelan Dorr Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Kaelan Dorr Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kari Lake Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Kari Lake Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Karoline Leavitt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Karoline Leavitt Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kat Timpf Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Kat Timpf Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Katie Miller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Katie Miller Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Katie Pavlich Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Katie Pavlich Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kaylee McGhee White Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Kaylee McGhee White Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kayleigh McEnany Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Kayleigh McEnany Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Keith Kellogg Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% Keith Kellogg Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kush Desai Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Kush Desai Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lara Trump Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Lara Trump Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Laura Loomer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Laura Loomer Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lauren Bis Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Lauren Bis Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Liz Huston Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Liz Huston Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Logan Paul Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Logan Paul Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Marco Rubio Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Marco Rubio Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Margo Martin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Margo Martin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Maria Bartiromo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Maria Bartiromo Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mark Levin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Mark Levin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Matt Walsh Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Matt Walsh Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Matt Walsh Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.4% Mike Waltz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Matthew Boyle Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Matthew Boyle Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Cernovich Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Mike Cernovich Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Gallagher Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0% Mike Gallagher Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Pompeo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.9% Mike Pompeo Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Rogers Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.9% Mike Rogers Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Monica Crowley Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Monica Crowley Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Natalie Harp Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Natalie Harp Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nicki Minaj Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Nicki Minaj Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
No new person Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% No new person Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
No new person Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	41.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 41.0% No other person Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Pat Adams Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Pat Adams Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Peter Doocy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Peter Doocy Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Rachel Campos-Duffy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Rachel Campos-Duffy Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Roma Daravi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Roma Daravi Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ron DeSantis Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 2.4% · Ask 9.0% Ron DeSantis Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Sage Steele Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Sage Steele Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Scott Jennings Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0% Scott Jennings Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Sean Spicer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Sean Spicer Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Spencer Pratt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Spencer Pratt Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Steve Feinberg Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.8% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Steve Feinberg Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Steven Cheung Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Steven Cheung Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Taylor Budowich Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Taylor Budowich Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Taylor Rogers Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Taylor Rogers Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tom Cotton Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Tom Cotton Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Trae Stephens Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0% Trae Stephens Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tricia McLaughlin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Tricia McLaughlin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tucker Carlson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Tucker Carlson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tulsi Gabbard Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Tulsi Gabbard Open Kalshi ↗ 0.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% Tulsi Gabbard Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Vanessa Broussard Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 1.0% Vanessa Broussard Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Wesley Hunt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 5.2% Wesley Hunt Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Adam Telle

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 47.0%

Adam Telle

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

Kalshi

Polymarket

Adam Telle

Kalshi

Polymarket

Brent Ingraham

Kalshi

Polymarket

Brian Mast

Kalshi

Polymarket

Charles Young III

Kalshi

Polymarket

Marc Andersen

Kalshi

Polymarket

Michael Obadal

Kalshi

Polymarket

Sean Parnell

Kalshi

Polymarket

W. Jordan Gillis

Kalshi

Polymarket

Alina Habba

Kalshi

Polymarket

Anna Kelly

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ari Fleischer

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ben Ferguson

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ben Shapiro

Kalshi

Polymarket

Beni Rae Harmony

Kalshi

Polymarket

Benny Johnson

Kalshi

Polymarket

Bill Hagerty

Kalshi

Polymarket

Cara Castronuova

Kalshi

Polymarket

Christopher Miller

Kalshi

Polymarket

Dan Bongino

Kalshi

Polymarket

Dan Driscoll

Kalshi

Polymarket

Danielle Alvarez

Kalshi

Polymarket

Derrick Anderson

Kalshi

Polymarket

Elbridge Colby

Kalshi

Polymarket

Elizabeth Pipko

Kalshi

Polymarket

Eric Daugherty

Kalshi

Polymarket

Erika Kirk

Kalshi