Market comparison

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

2 venues · 25 outcome rows · 0 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

17 outcomes · $42K reported volume

Observed 14s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 20, 2029

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

29 outcomes · $5K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 19, 2029

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

No shared outcome identities or comparable outcome lines are available for this event. Each venue’s outcomes are listed separately.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Adam Telle Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	36.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 70.0% Adam Telle Open Polymarket ↗	—
Bill Hagerty Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0% Bill Hagerty Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Brent Ingraham Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.5% Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0% Brent Ingraham Open Polymarket ↗	—
Brian Mast Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.5% Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0% Brian Mast Open Polymarket ↗	—
Charles Young III Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.0% Charles Young III Open Polymarket ↗	—
Christopher Miller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0% Christopher Miller Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dan Driscoll Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	21.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 21.0% Dan Driscoll Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Elbridge Colby Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0% Elbridge Colby Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Joni Ernst Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.2% Bid 2.2% · Ask 9.2% Joni Ernst Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Keith Kellogg Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% Keith Kellogg Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Marc Andersen Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 23.0% Marc Andersen Open Polymarket ↗	—
Michael Obadal Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	8.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0% Michael Obadal Open Polymarket ↗	—
Mike Gallagher Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0% Mike Gallagher Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Pompeo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.9% Mike Pompeo Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Rogers Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.9% Mike Rogers Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Waltz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.4% Mike Waltz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
No other person Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	41.0% Bid 38.0% · Ask 41.0% No other person Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ron DeSantis Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 2.4% · Ask 9.0% Ron DeSantis Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Sean Parnell Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	19.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 22.0% Sean Parnell Open Polymarket ↗	—
Steve Feinberg Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.8% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Steve Feinberg Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tom Cotton Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Tom Cotton Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Trae Stephens Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0% Trae Stephens Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tulsi Gabbard Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9% Tulsi Gabbard Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
W. Jordan Gillis Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	10.3% Bid 1.5% · Ask 19.0% W. Jordan Gillis Open Polymarket ↗	—
Wesley Hunt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.2% · Ask 5.2% Wesley Hunt Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Adam Telle

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

36.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 70.0%

Adam Telle

Open Polymarket ↗

Bill Hagerty

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0%

Bill Hagerty

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Brent Ingraham

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.5%

Bid 2.0% · Ask 9.0%

Brent Ingraham

Open Polymarket ↗

Brian Mast

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

7.5%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 12.0%

Brian Mast

Open Polymarket ↗

Charles Young III

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 7.0%

Charles Young III

Open Polymarket ↗

Christopher Miller

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0%

Christopher Miller

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dan Driscoll

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

21.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 21.0%

Dan Driscoll

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Elbridge Colby

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

5.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 5.0%

Elbridge Colby

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Joni Ernst

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.2%

Bid 2.2% · Ask 9.2%

Joni Ernst

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Keith Kellogg

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

Keith Kellogg

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Marc Andersen

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

14.0%

Bid 5.0% · Ask 23.0%

Marc Andersen

Open Polymarket ↗

Michael Obadal

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

8.0%

Bid 6.0% · Ask 10.0%

Michael Obadal

Open Polymarket ↗

Mike Gallagher

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0%

Mike Gallagher

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mike Pompeo

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.9%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.9%

Mike Pompeo

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mike Rogers

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 5.9%

Mike Rogers

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mike Waltz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.4%

Mike Waltz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

No other person

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

41.0%

Bid 38.0% · Ask 41.0%

No other person

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ron DeSantis

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

9.0%

Bid 2.4% · Ask 9.0%

Ron DeSantis

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Sean Parnell

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

19.0%

Bid 16.0% · Ask 22.0%

Sean Parnell

Open Polymarket ↗

Steve Feinberg

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.8%

Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0%

Steve Feinberg

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tom Cotton

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

3.0%

Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0%

Tom Cotton

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Trae Stephens

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

2.0%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.0%

Trae Stephens

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tulsi Gabbard

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

0.9%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.9%

Tulsi Gabbard

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

W. Jordan Gillis

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

10.3%

Bid 1.5% · Ask 19.0%

W. Jordan Gillis

Open Polymarket ↗

Wesley Hunt

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

1.0%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 5.2%

Wesley Hunt

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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