Market comparison

Who will have a #1 hit this year?

2 venues · 129 outcome rows · 23 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

124 outcomes · $287K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 21, 2026

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

28 outcomes · $189K reported volume

Observed 25s ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Windows differ at the edges: Kalshi counts charts up to a named Billboard issue (e.g. week of Dec 26); Polymarket counts charts whose tracking period falls inside the calendar year. Features may count on Kalshi only.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will have a #1 hit this year?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Ariana Grande Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Ariana Grande · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Ariana Grande · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Bad Bunny Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bad Bunny · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Bad Bunny · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Billie Eilish Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 15.0% Billie Eilish Open Kalshi ↗	2.6% Bid 0.9% · Ask 4.3% Billie Eilish Open Polymarket ↗	8.4 pp
Doja Cat Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Doja Cat Open Kalshi ↗	45.6% Bid 1.4% · Ask 89.7% Doja Cat Open Polymarket ↗	43.5 pp
Drake Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	98.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Drake · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.6% · Ask 100.0% Drake · closed Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
Ed Sheeran Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Ed Sheeran Open Kalshi ↗	2.5% Bid 0.4% · Ask 4.7% Ed Sheeran Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Frank Ocean Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 9.0% Frank Ocean Open Kalshi ↗	7.1% Bid 4.6% · Ask 9.6% Frank Ocean Open Polymarket ↗	0.1 pp
Future Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 14.0% Future Open Kalshi ↗	11.1% Bid 1.3% · Ask 20.8% Future Open Polymarket ↗	4.0 pp
Harry Styles Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Harry Styles · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Harry Styles · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Kendrick Lamar Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	17.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 17.0% Kendrick Lamar Open Kalshi ↗	22.0% Bid 21.0% · Ask 23.0% Kendrick Lamar Open Polymarket ↗	5.0 pp
Lil Baby Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 11.0% Lil Baby Open Kalshi ↗	8.7% Bid 7.4% · Ask 10.0% Lil Baby Open Polymarket ↗	2.7 pp
Luke Combs Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 9.0% Luke Combs Open Kalshi ↗	13.5% Bid 6.0% · Ask 21.0% Luke Combs Open Polymarket ↗	6.5 pp
Mariah Carey Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	90.0% Bid 90.0% · Ask 95.0% Mariah Carey Open Kalshi ↗	96.8% Bid 95.2% · Ask 98.4% Mariah Carey Open Polymarket ↗	6.8 pp
Morgan Wallen Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	27.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 31.0% Morgan Wallen Open Kalshi ↗	24.5% Bid 24.0% · Ask 25.0% Morgan Wallen Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Olivia Rodrigo Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Olivia Rodrigo · closed Open Kalshi ↗	100.0% Bid 99.9% · Ask 100.0% Olivia Rodrigo · closed Open Polymarket ↗	1.0 pp
Post Malone Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 25.0% Post Malone Open Kalshi ↗	24.5% Bid 23.0% · Ask 26.0% Post Malone Open Polymarket ↗	2.5 pp
Rihanna Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% Rihanna Open Kalshi ↗	11.8% Bid 10.7% · Ask 12.8% Rihanna Open Polymarket ↗	6.7 pp
Sabrina Carpenter Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	19.0% Bid 16.0% · Ask 21.0% Sabrina Carpenter Open Kalshi ↗	17.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 21.0% Sabrina Carpenter Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
SZA Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	14.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 29.0% SZA Open Kalshi ↗	24.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 36.0% SZA Open Polymarket ↗	10.0 pp
The Weeknd Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	9.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0% The Weeknd Open Kalshi ↗	12.5% Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0% The Weeknd Open Polymarket ↗	3.5 pp
Travis Scott Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	14.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% Travis Scott Open Kalshi ↗	21.0% Bid 20.0% · Ask 22.0% Travis Scott Open Polymarket ↗	7.0 pp
Tyler, The Creator Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	7.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 8.0% Tyler, The Creator Open Kalshi ↗	9.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 11.0% Tyler, The Creator Open Polymarket ↗	2.0 pp
Zach Bryan Partial parity Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0% Zach Bryan Open Kalshi ↗	11.1% Bid 3.1% · Ask 19.0% Zach Bryan Open Polymarket ↗	0.1 pp
2 Chainz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% 2 Chainz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
21 Savage Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 7.0% 21 Savage Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
A$AP Rocky Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	18.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 26.0% A$AP Rocky Open Polymarket ↗	—
Addison Rae Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% Addison Rae Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Alex Warren Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Alex Warren Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Anuel AA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Anuel AA Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bebe Rexha Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Bebe Rexha Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Benson Boone Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% Benson Boone Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Beyoncé Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	24.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 24.0% Beyoncé Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Big Sean Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Big Sean Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
BLACKPINK Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% BLACKPINK Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bruno Mars Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Bruno Mars · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bryson Tiller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Bryson Tiller Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
BTS Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% BTS · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Calvin Harris Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Calvin Harris Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Camilo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Camilo Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Chappell Roan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 15.0% Chappell Roan Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Charli xcx Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Charli xcx Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Charlie Puth Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Charlie Puth Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Childish Gambino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Childish Gambino Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Chris Brown Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.0% Chris Brown Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Clairo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Clairo Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Coldplay Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% Coldplay Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Daft Punk Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Daft Punk Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Daniel Caesar Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Daniel Caesar Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
David Guetta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% David Guetta Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Doechii Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 9.0% Doechii Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Don Toliver Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 8.0% Don Toliver Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dua Lipa Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 6.0% Dua Lipa Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ella Langley Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Ella Langley · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Eminem Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 15.0% Eminem Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
EsDeeKid Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% EsDeeKid Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fall Out Boy Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Fall Out Boy Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Fred again.. Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Fred again.. Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Geese Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Geese Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Gracie Abrams Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Gracie Abrams Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Grimes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Grimes Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ice Spice Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% Ice Spice Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
J Balvin Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% J Balvin Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
J. Cole Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% J. Cole Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Jack Harlow Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	14.9% Bid 11.8% · Ask 18.0% Jack Harlow Open Polymarket ↗	—
Jason Derulo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% Jason Derulo Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
John Mayer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% John Mayer Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Joji Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 3.0% Joji Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Justin Bieber Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 11.0% Justin Bieber Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Justin Timberlake Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0% Justin Timberlake Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kali Uchis Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Kali Uchis Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kanye West Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 1.1% · Ask 5.0% Kanye West Open Polymarket ↗	—
Kanye West / Ye Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Kanye West / Ye Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
KAROL G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 12.0% KAROL G Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
KATSEYE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 9.0% KATSEYE Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Khalid Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Khalid Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kid Cudi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Kid Cudi Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kodak Black Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Kodak Black Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lady Gaga Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 13.0% Lady Gaga Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lana Del Rey Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 16.0% Lana Del Rey Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Leon Thomas Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Leon Thomas Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lewis Capaldi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Lewis Capaldi Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lil Nas X Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Lil Nas X Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lil Peep Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.0% Lil Peep Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lil Uzi Vert Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.0% Lil Uzi Vert Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lil Wayne Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	6.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 6.0% Lil Wayne Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lil Yachty Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Lil Yachty Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Linkin Park Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Linkin Park Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Logic Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 3.0% Logic Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lola Young Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Lola Young Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Maroon 5 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Maroon 5 Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Megan Thee Stallion Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0% Megan Thee Stallion Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
mgk Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 5.0% mgk Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Migos Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0% Migos Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
NF Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% NF Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Nicki Minaj Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	9.0% Bid 6.0% · Ask 9.0% Nicki Minaj Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Offset Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 7.0% Offset Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Olivia Dean Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 13.0% Olivia Dean Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ozuna Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Ozuna Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
PARTYNEXTDOOR Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% PARTYNEXTDOOR Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Peso Pluma Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	6.5% Bid 5.0% · Ask 7.9% Peso Pluma Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pharrell Williams Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 6.0% Pharrell Williams Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
PinkPantheress Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.0% PinkPantheress Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Playboi Carti Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	7.1% Bid 5.2% · Ask 9.0% Playboi Carti Open Polymarket ↗	—
Polo G Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 6.0% Polo G Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Quavo Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Quavo Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Rauw Alejandro Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Rauw Alejandro Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Roddy Ricch Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Roddy Ricch Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
ROSALÍA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 4.0% ROSALÍA Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Sam Smith Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 5.0% Sam Smith Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Selena Gomez Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 6.0% Selena Gomez Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shaboozey Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	4.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 4.0% Shaboozey Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Shawn Mendes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 8.0% Shawn Mendes Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Sia Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Sia Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
SIENNA SPIRO Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	7.0% Bid 4.0% · Ask 8.0% SIENNA SPIRO Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
sombr Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	5.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 10.0% sombr Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Stray Kids Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Stray Kids Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Swae Lee Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Swae Lee Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tame Impala Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	10.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 10.0% Tame Impala Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tate McRae Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	68.0% Bid 68.0% · Ask 73.0% Tate McRae Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Taylor Swift Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	50.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Taylor Swift · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
The Kid LAROI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% The Kid LAROI Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
The Marías Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% The Marías Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Trippie Redd Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 2.0% Trippie Redd Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tyga Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 3.0% Tyga Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tyla Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	2.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 4.0% Tyla Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
USHER Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 2.0% · Ask 5.0% USHER Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Young Thug Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 5.0% · Ask 9.0% Young Thug Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
YoungBoy Never Broke Again Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% YoungBoy Never Broke Again Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Zara Larsson Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	3.0% Bid 3.0% · Ask 9.0% Zara Larsson Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Ariana Grande

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Ariana Grande · closed

Who will have a #1 hit this year?

Kalshi

Polymarket

Known rule differences between venues

Ariana Grande

Kalshi

Polymarket

Bad Bunny

Kalshi

Polymarket

Billie Eilish

Kalshi

Polymarket

Doja Cat

Kalshi

Polymarket

Drake

Kalshi

Polymarket

Ed Sheeran

Kalshi

Polymarket

Frank Ocean

Kalshi

Polymarket

Future

Kalshi

Polymarket

Harry Styles

Kalshi

Polymarket

Kendrick Lamar

Kalshi

Polymarket

Lil Baby

Kalshi

Polymarket

Luke Combs

Kalshi

Polymarket

Mariah Carey

Kalshi

Polymarket

Morgan Wallen

Kalshi

Polymarket

Olivia Rodrigo

Kalshi

Polymarket

Post Malone

Kalshi

Polymarket

Rihanna

Kalshi

Polymarket

Sabrina Carpenter

Kalshi

Polymarket

SZA

Kalshi

Polymarket

The Weeknd

Kalshi

Polymarket

Travis Scott

Kalshi

Polymarket

Tyler, The Creator

Kalshi

Polymarket

Zach Bryan

Kalshi

Polymarket

2 Chainz

Kalshi

Polymarket

21 Savage

Kalshi

Polymarket

A$AP Rocky