Market comparison

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?

2 venues · 45 outcome rows · 17 comparable lines · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

41 outcomes · $5.4M reported volume

Observed 35s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

29 outcomes · $137K reported volume

Observed 35s ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Brooke Rollins Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	17.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 19.0% Brooke Rollins Open Kalshi ↗	3.4% Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.9% Brooke Rollins Open Polymarket ↗	13.7 pp
Chris Wright Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	17.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0% Chris Wright Open Kalshi ↗	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4% Chris Wright Open Polymarket ↗	16.7 pp
Doug Burgum Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0% Doug Burgum Open Kalshi ↗	1.5% Bid 1.3% · Ask 1.7% Doug Burgum Open Polymarket ↗	10.5 pp
Doug Collins Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	33.0% Bid 30.0% · Ask 33.0% Doug Collins Open Kalshi ↗	0.5% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.6% Doug Collins Open Polymarket ↗	32.5 pp
Howard Lutnick Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Howard Lutnick Open Kalshi ↗	0.7% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.9% Howard Lutnick Open Polymarket ↗	17.3 pp
Jamieson Greer Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	12.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Jamieson Greer Open Kalshi ↗	0.7% Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.0% Jamieson Greer Open Polymarket ↗	11.3 pp
John Ratcliffe Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	12.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0% John Ratcliffe Open Kalshi ↗	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% John Ratcliffe Open Polymarket ↗	11.6 pp
Kelly Loeffler Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	10.0% Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0% Kelly Loeffler Open Kalshi ↗	0.9% Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.2% Kelly Loeffler Open Polymarket ↗	9.2 pp
Lee Zeldin Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.5% Bid 4.6% · Ask 8.9% Lee Zeldin Open Kalshi ↗	1.6% Bid 1.1% · Ask 2.1% Lee Zeldin Open Polymarket ↗	6.9 pp
Linda McMahon Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	20.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 20.0% Linda McMahon Open Kalshi ↗	0.8% Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.9% Linda McMahon Open Polymarket ↗	19.3 pp
Marco Rubio Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	11.0% Bid 9.6% · Ask 11.0% Marco Rubio Open Kalshi ↗	0.6% Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0% Marco Rubio Open Polymarket ↗	10.4 pp
Pete Hegseth Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	25.0% Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0% Pete Hegseth Open Kalshi ↗	9.3% Bid 7.3% · Ask 11.3% Pete Hegseth Open Polymarket ↗	15.7 pp
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	14.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0% Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Open Kalshi ↗	4.8% Bid 2.9% · Ask 6.7% Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Open Polymarket ↗	9.2 pp
Scott Bessent Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	8.6% Bid 5.1% · Ask 8.8% Scott Bessent Open Kalshi ↗	0.7% Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.8% Scott Bessent Open Polymarket ↗	7.9 pp
Scott Turner Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	16.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 16.0% Scott Turner Open Kalshi ↗	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% Scott Turner Open Polymarket ↗	15.7 pp
Sean Duffy Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0% Sean Duffy Open Kalshi ↗	0.4% Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4% Sean Duffy Open Polymarket ↗	12.7 pp
Susie Wiles Same label, rules unverified Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.	39.0% Bid 39.0% · Ask 40.0% Susie Wiles Open Kalshi ↗	24.6% Bid 23.7% · Ask 25.4% Susie Wiles Open Polymarket ↗	14.5 pp
Amy Gleason Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	28.0% Bid 28.0% · Ask 30.0% Amy Gleason Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Bill Pulte Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0% Bill Pulte Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Brendan Carr Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 9.1% · Ask 13.0% Brendan Carr Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Dan Bongino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Dan Bongino · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
David Sacks Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	98.0% Bid 32.0% · Ask 97.0% David Sacks · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Greg Bovino Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	62.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Greg Bovino · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
J.D. Vance Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.0% JD Vance Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
J.D. Vance Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.1% Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.1% J.D. Vance Open Polymarket ↗	—
Karoline Leavitt Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.9% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Karoline Leavitt · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kash Patel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	18.0% Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0% Kash Patel Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Kristi Noem Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Kristi Noem · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Lori Chavez-DeRemer Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.7% Bid 99.7% · Ask 100.0% Lori Chavez-DeRemer · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mehmet Oz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Mehmet Oz Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Huckabee Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0% Mike Huckabee Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Mike Waltz Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	5.0% Bid 2.6% · Ask 7.3% Mike Waltz Open Polymarket ↗	—
None before 2027 Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	37.7% Bid 37.1% · Ask 38.3% None before 2027 Open Polymarket ↗	—
Pam Bondi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.0% Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0% Pam Bondi · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Peter Navarro Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	15.0% Bid 13.0% · Ask 16.0% Peter Navarro Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Ric Grenell Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	68.0% Bid 67.0% · Ask 72.0% Ric Grenell Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Rodney Scott Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	14.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0% Rodney Scott Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Russell Vought Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0% Russell Vought Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Russell Vought Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.0% Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.4% Russell T. Vought Open Polymarket ↗	—
Stephen Miller Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	13.0% Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0% Stephen Miller Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Steve Witkoff Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	20.0% Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0% Steve Witkoff Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Steven Cheung Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	11.0% Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0% Steven Cheung Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Todd Blanche Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	97.8% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Todd Blanche · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tom Homan Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	16.0% Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0% Tom Homan Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Tulsi Gabbard Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	99.5% Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Tulsi Gabbard · closed Open Kalshi ↗	—	—

Brooke Rollins

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 19.0%

Brooke Rollins

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

3.4%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 5.9%

Brooke Rollins

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 13.7 pp

Chris Wright

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

17.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 18.0%

Chris Wright

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.3%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.4%

Chris Wright

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 16.7 pp

Doug Burgum

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0%

Doug Burgum

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.5%

Bid 1.3% · Ask 1.7%

Doug Burgum

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.5 pp

Doug Collins

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

33.0%

Bid 30.0% · Ask 33.0%

Doug Collins

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.5%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.6%

Doug Collins

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 32.5 pp

Howard Lutnick

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Howard Lutnick

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.9%

Howard Lutnick

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 17.3 pp

Jamieson Greer

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

Jamieson Greer

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 1.0%

Jamieson Greer

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 11.3 pp

John Ratcliffe

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

12.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 14.0%

John Ratcliffe

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

John Ratcliffe

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 11.6 pp

Kelly Loeffler

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

10.0%

Bid 10.0% · Ask 11.0%

Kelly Loeffler

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.9%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 1.2%

Kelly Loeffler

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 9.2 pp

Lee Zeldin

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.5%

Bid 4.6% · Ask 8.9%

Lee Zeldin

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.6%

Bid 1.1% · Ask 2.1%

Lee Zeldin

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 6.9 pp

Linda McMahon

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 20.0%

Linda McMahon

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.8%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.9%

Linda McMahon

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 19.3 pp

Marco Rubio

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 9.6% · Ask 11.0%

Marco Rubio

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.6%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 1.0%

Marco Rubio

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 10.4 pp

Pete Hegseth

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

25.0%

Bid 25.0% · Ask 26.0%

Pete Hegseth

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

9.3%

Bid 7.3% · Ask 11.3%

Pete Hegseth

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 15.7 pp

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 14.0%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

4.8%

Bid 2.9% · Ask 6.7%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 9.2 pp

Scott Bessent

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

8.6%

Bid 5.1% · Ask 8.8%

Scott Bessent

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.7%

Bid 0.6% · Ask 0.8%

Scott Bessent

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 7.9 pp

Scott Turner

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 16.0%

Scott Turner

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

Scott Turner

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 15.7 pp

Sean Duffy

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0%

Sean Duffy

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.4%

Bid 0.3% · Ask 0.4%

Sean Duffy

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 12.7 pp

Susie Wiles

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Kalshi

39.0%

Bid 39.0% · Ask 40.0%

Susie Wiles

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

24.6%

Bid 23.7% · Ask 25.4%

Susie Wiles

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 14.5 pp

Amy Gleason

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

28.0%

Bid 28.0% · Ask 30.0%

Amy Gleason

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Bill Pulte

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

22.0%

Bid 22.0% · Ask 24.0%

Bill Pulte

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Brendan Carr

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 9.1% · Ask 13.0%

Brendan Carr

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Dan Bongino

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Dan Bongino · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

David Sacks

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

98.0%

Bid 32.0% · Ask 97.0%

David Sacks · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Greg Bovino

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

62.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Greg Bovino · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

J.D. Vance

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Bid 0.0% · Ask 0.0%

JD Vance

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

J.D. Vance

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.1%

Bid 0.2% · Ask 2.1%

J.D. Vance

Open Polymarket ↗

Karoline Leavitt

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.9%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Karoline Leavitt · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kash Patel

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

18.0%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 18.0%

Kash Patel

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Kristi Noem

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Kristi Noem · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.7%

Bid 99.7% · Ask 100.0%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mehmet Oz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

Mehmet Oz

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mike Huckabee

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 16.0%

Mike Huckabee

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Mike Waltz

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

5.0%

Bid 2.6% · Ask 7.3%

Mike Waltz

Open Polymarket ↗

None before 2027

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

37.7%

Bid 37.1% · Ask 38.3%

None before 2027

Open Polymarket ↗

Pam Bondi

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.0%

Bid 99.0% · Ask 100.0%

Pam Bondi · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Peter Navarro

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

15.0%

Bid 13.0% · Ask 16.0%

Peter Navarro

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Ric Grenell

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

68.0%

Bid 67.0% · Ask 72.0%

Ric Grenell

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Rodney Scott

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

14.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 14.0%

Rodney Scott

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Russell Vought

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 13.0%

Russell Vought

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Russell Vought

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

4.0%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 7.4%

Russell T. Vought

Open Polymarket ↗

Stephen Miller

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

13.0%

Bid 12.0% · Ask 13.0%

Stephen Miller

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Steve Witkoff

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

20.0%

Bid 19.0% · Ask 20.0%

Steve Witkoff

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Steven Cheung

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

11.0%

Bid 11.0% · Ask 12.0%

Steven Cheung

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Todd Blanche

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

97.8%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Todd Blanche · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tom Homan

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

16.0%

Bid 14.0% · Ask 16.0%

Tom Homan

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Tulsi Gabbard

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

99.5%

Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0%

Tulsi Gabbard · closed

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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