Market comparison

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?

2 venues · 49 outcome rows · 5 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

64 outcomes · $1.1M reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 24, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

7 outcomes · $50K reported volume

Observed 59s ago

Recorded venue end date: Oct 30, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Axel Kicillof Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	31.5% Bid 31.0% · Ask 32.0% Axel Kicillof Open Polymarket ↗	30.0% Bid 27.0% · Ask 30.0% Axel Kicillof Open Kalshi ↗	1.5 pp
Javier Milei Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	46.5% Bid 46.0% · Ask 47.0% Javier Milei Open Polymarket ↗	51.0% Bid 49.0% · Ask 52.0% Javier Milei Open Kalshi ↗	4.5 pp
Mauricio Macri Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	0.3% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.3% Mauricio Macri Open Polymarket ↗	2.0% Bid 1.0% · Ask 2.0% Mauricio Macri Open Kalshi ↗	1.8 pp
Patricia Bullrich Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	4.5% Bid 4.1% · Ask 5.0% Patricia Bullrich Open Polymarket ↗	3.1% Bid 3.0% · Ask 5.5% Patricia Bullrich Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
Sergio Massa Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	11.6% Bid 9.8% · Ask 13.3% Sergio Massa Open Polymarket ↗	13.0% Bid 9.0% · Ask 13.0% Sergio Massa Open Kalshi ↗	1.4 pp
Alberto Fernández Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid — · Ask 0.7% Alberto Fernández Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.3% Cristina Fernández de Kirchner Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Daniel Hadad Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.7% Bid 0.4% · Ask 1.0% Daniel Hadad Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Dante Gebel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.0% Bid 0.8% · Ask 1.2% Dante Gebel Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Eduardo de Pedro Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.8% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.8% Eduardo de Pedro Open Kalshi ↗	—
Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.3% Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Esteban Bullrich Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Esteban Bullrich Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Facundo Manes Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Facundo Manes Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Guillermo Moreno Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid — · Ask 0.8% Guillermo Moreno Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.8% Bid 0.1% · Ask 2.8% Horacio Rodríguez Larreta Open Kalshi ↗	—
Juan Grabois Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Juan Grabois Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Juan Schiaretti Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Juan Schiaretti Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Karina Milei Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid — · Ask 1.1% Karina Milei Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Lionel Messi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.6% Lionel Messi Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Máximo Kirchner Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Máximo Kirchner Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Myriam Bregman Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	1.1% Bid 0.7% · Ask 1.4% Myriam Bregman Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Nicolás del Caño Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.1% Bid — · Ask 0.1% Nicolás del Caño Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AA Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AA · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AB Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AB · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AC Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AC · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AD Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AD · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AE Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AE · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AF Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AF · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AG Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AG · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AH Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AH · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AI Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AI · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AJ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AJ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AK Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AK · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AL Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AL · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AM Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AM · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AN Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AN · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AO Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AO · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AP Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AP · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AQ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AQ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AR Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AR · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AS Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AS · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AT Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AT · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AU Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AU · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AV Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AV · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AW Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AW · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AX Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AX · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AY Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AY · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Person AZ Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	— Bid 0.0% · Ask 100.0% Person AZ · closed Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Victoria Villarruel Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.5% Bid 0.4% · Ask 0.6% Victoria Villarruel Open Polymarket ↗	—	—

Axel Kicillof

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Polymarket

31.5%

Bid 31.0% · Ask 32.0%

Axel Kicillof

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?

Polymarket

Kalshi

Known rule differences between venues

Axel Kicillof

Polymarket

Kalshi

Javier Milei

Polymarket

Kalshi

Mauricio Macri

Polymarket

Kalshi

Patricia Bullrich

Polymarket

Kalshi

Sergio Massa

Polymarket

Kalshi

Alberto Fernández

Polymarket

Kalshi

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

Polymarket

Kalshi

Daniel Hadad

Polymarket

Kalshi

Dante Gebel

Polymarket

Kalshi

Eduardo de Pedro

Polymarket

Kalshi

Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro

Polymarket

Kalshi

Esteban Bullrich

Polymarket

Kalshi

Facundo Manes

Polymarket

Kalshi

Guillermo Moreno

Polymarket

Kalshi

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

Polymarket

Kalshi

Juan Grabois

Polymarket

Kalshi

Juan Schiaretti

Polymarket

Kalshi

Karina Milei

Polymarket

Kalshi

Lionel Messi

Polymarket

Kalshi

Máximo Kirchner

Polymarket

Kalshi

Myriam Bregman

Polymarket

Kalshi

Nicolás del Caño

Polymarket

Kalshi

Person AA

Polymarket

Kalshi

Person AB

Polymarket

Kalshi

Person AC

Polymarket

Kalshi

Person AD