Market comparison

Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?

2 venues · 8 outcome rows · 4 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

5 outcomes · $17K reported volume

Observed 1m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 31, 2027

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

34 outcomes · $13K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Dec 5, 2026

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?
Outcome	Kalshi	Polymarket	Difference
Adama Barrow Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	66.0% Bid 66.0% · Ask 71.0% Adama Barrow Open Kalshi ↗	64.5% Bid 63.0% · Ask 66.0% Adama Barrow Open Polymarket ↗	1.5 pp
Essa Faal Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	4.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.9% Essa Faal Open Kalshi ↗	1.4% Bid 0.5% · Ask 2.2% Essa Faal Open Polymarket ↗	3.6 pp
Mama Kandeh Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	4.9% Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.9% Mama Kandeh Open Kalshi ↗	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Mama Kandeh Open Polymarket ↗	4.8 pp
Ousainou Darboe Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	19.0% Bid 15.0% · Ask 21.0% Ousainou Darboe Open Kalshi ↗	24.5% Bid 17.0% · Ask 32.0% Ousainou Darboe Open Polymarket ↗	5.5 pp
Bakary K. Badjie Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	2.5% Bid 0.8% · Ask 4.3% Bakary K. Badjie Open Polymarket ↗	—
Mohamed Al Amin Bah Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	0.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2% Mohamed Al Amin Bah Open Polymarket ↗	—
Talib Ahmed Bensouda Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	8.0% Bid 7.0% · Ask 14.0% Talib Bensouda Open Kalshi ↗	—	—
Talib Ahmed Bensouda Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	1.8% Bid 0.4% · Ask 3.3% Talib Ahmed Bensouda Open Polymarket ↗	—

Adama Barrow

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Kalshi

66.0%

Bid 66.0% · Ask 71.0%

Adama Barrow

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

64.5%

Bid 63.0% · Ask 66.0%

Adama Barrow

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 1.5 pp

Essa Faal

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Kalshi

4.9%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.9%

Essa Faal

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

1.4%

Bid 0.5% · Ask 2.2%

Essa Faal

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 3.6 pp

Mama Kandeh

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Kalshi

4.9%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.9%

Mama Kandeh

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Mama Kandeh

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 4.8 pp

Ousainou Darboe

Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Kalshi

19.0%

Bid 15.0% · Ask 21.0%

Ousainou Darboe

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

24.5%

Bid 17.0% · Ask 32.0%

Ousainou Darboe

Open Polymarket ↗

Price difference 5.5 pp

Bakary K. Badjie

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

2.5%

Bid 0.8% · Ask 4.3%

Bakary K. Badjie

Open Polymarket ↗

Mohamed Al Amin Bah

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

0.1%

Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.2%

Mohamed Al Amin Bah

Open Polymarket ↗

Talib Ahmed Bensouda

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

8.0%

Bid 7.0% · Ask 14.0%

Talib Bensouda

Open Kalshi ↗

Polymarket

—

Talib Ahmed Bensouda

Not aligned

No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.

Kalshi

—

Polymarket

1.8%

Bid 0.4% · Ask 3.3%

Talib Ahmed Bensouda

Open Polymarket ↗

Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.

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