Market comparison

Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?

2 venues · 7 outcome rows · 2 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active

Polymarket

Open venue ↗

22 outcomes · $136K reported volume

Observed 2m ago

Recorded venue end date: Jan 17, 2027

Kalshi

Open venue ↗

4 outcomes · $14K reported volume

Observed 3m ago

Recorded venue end date: Feb 28, 2028

Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These venues also report end dates more than 48 hours apart; event identity does not mean the contracts close or settle together. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.

Known rule differences between venues

Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.

A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.

Available outcome prices by venue for Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?
Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Difference
Bola Tinubu Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	67.5% Bid 67.0% · Ask 68.0% Bola Tinubu Open Polymarket ↗	71.0% Bid 71.0% · Ask 73.0% Bola Tinubu Open Kalshi ↗	3.5 pp
Peter Obi Identity matched The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.	24.0% Bid 23.0% · Ask 25.0% Peter Obi Open Polymarket ↗	22.0% Bid 22.0% · Ask 27.0% Peter Obi Open Kalshi ↗	2.0 pp
Atiku Abubakar Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	3.0% Bid 0.1% · Ask 6.7% Atiku Abubakar Open Kalshi ↗	—
Kashim Shettima Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	—	4.1% Bid 0.1% · Ask 4.1% Kashim Shettima Open Kalshi ↗	—
Omoyele Sowore Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.8% Omoyele Sowore Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Rabiu Kwankwaso Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.4% Bid 0.2% · Ask 0.7% Rabiu Kwankwaso Open Polymarket ↗	—	—
Rotimi Amaechi Not aligned No persisted outcome identity connects these venue contracts.	0.3% Bid 0.1% · Ask 0.4% Rotimi Amaechi Open Polymarket ↗	—	—