Market comparison
Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?
2 venues · 1 outcome rows · 1 comparable lines · event identity linked · 0 verified parity · active
Polymarket
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $12K reported volume
Observed 3m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Kalshi
Open venue ↗1 outcomes · $4K reported volume
Observed 1m ago
Recorded venue end date: Jan 1, 2027
Check settlement rules before comparing contracts. Matched outcomes may settle differently. These are stored prices; record update times do not certify live quotes. Differences exclude fees and available size.
Known rule differences between venues
- Kalshi resolves on the acquirer announcing an agreement; Polymarket on an official announcement that the target will be acquired by or merged with the acquirer. A merger framed the other way round can split them.
A shared identity alone does not make a price difference executable.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Yes Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above. | 2.1 pp |
Yes
Partial parityPayoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences above.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Price difference 2.1 pp
Prices are shown as percentages of a $1 payout. “pp” means percentage points. A dash means data is unavailable.