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What the markets expect
AOC defeats JD Vance 11.4%
Next is Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance at 10.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
AOC defeats JD Vance11.4%10%11.4% fair9¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 2 h ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)AOC defeats JD Vance11.4%Kalshi 10%(11.4% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
AOC defeats JD Vance
11.4%
10%
11.4% fair
9¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
AOC defeats JD Vance
11.4%
Kalshi 10%(11.4% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AOC defeats JD Vance
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 11.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $12K
Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance10.3%9%10.3% fair8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 2 h ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance10.3%Kalshi 9%(10.3% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance
10.3%
9%
10.3% fair
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance
10.3%
Kalshi 9%(10.3% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $8K
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom9.2%8%9.1% fair8¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 2 h ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom9.2%Kalshi 8%(9.1% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
9.2%
8%
9.1% fair
8¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
9.2%
Kalshi 8%(9.1% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $21K
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance8%7%8% fair6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 2 h ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance8%Kalshi 7%(8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
8%
7%
8% fair
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
8%
Kalshi 7%(8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $21K
AOC defeats JD VanceKalshi: “JD Vance defeats AOC”5.7%5%5.7% fair4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)AOC defeats JD Vance5.7%Kalshi 5%(5.7% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
AOC defeats JD Vance
Kalshi: “JD Vance defeats AOC”
5.7%
5%
5.7% fair
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
AOC defeats JD Vance
5.7%
Kalshi 5%(5.7% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance defeats AOC
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $8K
Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio4.6%4%4.6% fair1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 2 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio4.6%Kalshi 4%(4.6% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio
4.6%
4%
4.6% fair
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio
4.6%
Kalshi 4%(4.6% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $13K
Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance4.6%4%4.6% fair3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 2 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance4.6%Kalshi 4%(4.6% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance
4.6%
4%
4.6% fair
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance
4.6%
Kalshi 4%(4.6% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
AOC defeats JD VanceKalshi: “AOC defeats Marco Rubio”3.4%3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 2 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)AOC defeats JD Vance3.4%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
AOC defeats JD Vance
Kalshi: “AOC defeats Marco Rubio”
3.4%
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
AOC defeats JD Vance
3.4%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AOC defeats Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris3.4%3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 2 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris3.4%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris
3.4%
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris
3.4%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $6K
Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $996
Show 22 more outcomesHide 22 outcomes
Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
AOC defeats JD VanceKalshi: “Marco Rubio defeats AOC”2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)AOC defeats JD Vance2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
AOC defeats JD Vance
Kalshi: “Marco Rubio defeats AOC”
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
AOC defeats JD Vance
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio defeats AOC
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $500
JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $205
Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $7K
Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance2.3%2%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 2 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance
2.3%
2%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $701
Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $16K
Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $788
Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio1.7%1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio1.7%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio
1.7%
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio
1.7%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
James Talarico defeats JD Vance1.2%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)James Talarico defeats JD Vance1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
James Talarico defeats JD Vance
1.2%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
James Talarico defeats JD Vance
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Talarico defeats JD Vance
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $748
James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio1.2%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio
1.2%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $494
JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear1.2%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear
1.2%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $97
JD Vance defeats James Talarico1.1%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)JD Vance defeats James Talarico1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats James Talarico
1.1%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats James Talarico
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance defeats James Talarico
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro1.1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro
1.1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $484
Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio1.1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio
1.1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $155
Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear1.1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear
1.1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $494
Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico1.1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico
1.1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $453
Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff1.1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff
1.1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro1.1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro
1.1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $201
Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg1.1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg
1.1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $594
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Office of the Presidency
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- AOC defeats JD Vance
- Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance
- JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "2028 Presidential race: exact outcome". AOC defeats JD Vance leads at 11.4%. Next is Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance at 10.3%. $138K has traded across 32 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2029.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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