The Prediction Markets

333: Alex Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev

Starts in 41 hKickoff
Traded
$615K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 93%

Next is O/U 4.5 Rounds at 71%. The venues differ most on Alex Volkanovski (Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 51%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 4.5 Rounds
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 4.5 Rounds
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 3.5 Rounds
57.5%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 3.5 Rounds
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Volkanovski
50.6%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$82K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Volkanovski
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$337K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 50¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 50¢.

Movsar Evloev
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Movsar Evloev
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$195K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 18 more outcomes
Volkanovski in Round 1
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 1
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 2
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 2
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 1
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 1
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 3
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 3
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski in Round 2
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 2
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski in Round 4
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 4
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski in Round 5
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 5
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski in Round 3
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 3
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 5?
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 5?
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev to win by KO/TKO?
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO?
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 4
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 4
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 5
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 5
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 4?
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 4?
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 7:10 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 4.5 Rounds
  • O/U 2.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "333: Alex Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 93%. Next is O/U 4.5 Rounds at 71%. $615K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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