The Prediction Markets

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$12.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

82,500 56.5%

Next is 77,500 at 48.1%. The venues differ most on 77,500 (Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 50%), a 2.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 33 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
82,500
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,500
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
77,500
48.1%
Polymarket 47.5%live, 2 min agoKalshi 50%live, 2 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
77,500
Price
47.5%
As of
Live feed, 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$644K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $77,500.00
Price
50%
As of
Live feed, 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 48¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 48¢.

85,000
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
85,000
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$422K
Trade this on Polymarket
75,000Arb
20.9%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 19%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
75,000
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$437K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $75,000.00
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Kalshi at 20¢ and selling on Polymarket at 21¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

87,500
9.3%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
87,500
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$889K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $87,500.00
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$388K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

72,500
8.5%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,500
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
8.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$339K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $72,500.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

90,000Arb
4.3%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$578K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $90,000.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$473K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

70,000
4%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$292K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $70,000.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

92,500
2.9%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
92,500
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$536K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $92,500.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$385K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.2¢.

67,500
2.1%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
67,500
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$313K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $67,500.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.9¢.

Show 9 more outcomes
95,000
2%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
95,000
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$408K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $95,000.00
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$157K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.7¢.

97,500
1.4%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
97,500
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$300K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $97,500.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$147K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

65,000
1.4%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
65,000
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$595K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $65,000.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

62,500
1.1%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
62,500
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$627K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $62,500.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

100,000
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
100,000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$429K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $100,000.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$112K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

102,500
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
102,500
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$346K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $102,500.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

60,000
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
60,000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$572K
Trade this on Polymarket
105,000
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
105,000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$662K
Trade this on Polymarket
150,000
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
150,000
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$634K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 75,000 on Kalshi at 20¢, sell on Polymarket at 21¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 82,500
  • 77,500
  • 85,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 82,500 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What price will Bitcoin hit in October?". 82,500 leads at 56.5%. Next is 77,500 at 48.1%. $12.4M has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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