California 2026 Election Odds

California House races

Every California district with a market on either venue.

California House races

District	Rating	Kalshi favourite	Polymarket favourite	Gap	Link
CA-01	Safe D	Mike McGuire96%	Mike McGuire96%	0.4 pts	Odds →
CA-02	Safe D	Jared Huffman97%	Jared Huffman96%	1.0 pts	Odds →
CA-03	Safe D	Ami Bera96%	Ami Bera96%	0.0 pts	Odds →
CA-04	Safe D	Mike Thompson75%	Democratic Party99%	—	Odds →
CA-05	Safe R	Tom McClintock93%	Tom McClintock93%	0.9 pts	Odds →
CA-06	Safe D	Richard Pan96%	Democratic Party96%	—	Odds →
CA-07	Safe D	Doris Matsui67%	Democratic Party97%	—	Odds →
CA-08	Safe D	John Garamendi96%	John Garamendi96%	0.7 pts	Odds →
CA-09	Safe D	Josh Harder96%	Josh Harder97%	0.6 pts	Odds →
CA-10	Safe D	Mark DeSaulnier98%	Mark DeSaulnier97%	0.5 pts	Odds →
CA-11	Safe D	Not listed	Democratic Party98%	—	Odds →
CA-12	Safe D	Lateefah Simon96%	Democratic Party96%	—	Odds →
CA-13	Safe D	Adam Gray94%	Adam Gray95%	1.2 pts	Odds →
CA-14	Safe D	Aisha Wahab90%	Democratic Party99%	—	Odds →
CA-15	Safe D	Kevin Mullin98%	Kevin Mullin97%	1.4 pts	Odds →
CA-16	Safe D	Sam Liccardo98%	Sam Liccardo97%	1.1 pts	Odds →
CA-17	Safe D	Ro Khanna99%	Ro Khanna98%	0.7 pts	Odds →
CA-18	Safe D	Zoe Lofgren97%	Zoe Lofgren98%	1.8 pts	Odds →
CA-19	Safe D	Jimmy Panetta99.6%	Jimmy Panetta98%	1.3 pts	Odds →
CA-20	Safe R	Vince Fong96%	Vince Fong98%	1.6 pts	Odds →
CA-21	Safe D	Jim Costa95%	Jim Costa96%	0.9 pts	Odds →
CA-22	Safe D	Randy Villegas91%	Randy Villegas90%	0.5 pts	Odds →
CA-23	Safe R	Jay Obernolte98%	Jay Obernolte98%	0.3 pts	Odds →
CA-24	Safe D	Salud Carbajal98%	Salud Carbajal98%	0.3 pts	Odds →
CA-25	Safe D	Raul Ruiz97%	Raul Ruiz95%	1.6 pts	Odds →
CA-26	Safe D	Jacqui Irwin97%	Jacqui Irwin95%	1.9 pts	Odds →
CA-27	Safe D	George Whitesides96%	George Whitesides96%	0.3 pts	Odds →
CA-28	Safe D	Judy Chu98%	Judy Chu97%	1.4 pts	Odds →
CA-29	Safe D	Luz Rivas93%	Democratic Party97%	—	Odds →
CA-30	Safe D	Laura Friedman95%	Laura Friedman96%	1.1 pts	Odds →
CA-31	Safe D	Not listed	Gil Cisneros95%	—	Odds →
CA-32	Safe D	Brad Sherman99%	Brad Sherman98%	1.0 pts	Odds →
CA-33	Safe D	Pete Aguilar98%	Pete Aguilar96%	1.6 pts	Odds →
CA-34	Safe D	Angela Gonzales-Torres78%	Democratic Party98%	—	Odds →
CA-35	Safe D	Not listed	Norma Torres97%	—	Odds →
CA-36	Safe D	Ted Lieu96%	Ted Lieu96%	0.6 pts	Odds →
CA-37	Safe D	Sydney Kamlager-Dove95%	Democratic Party96%	—	Odds →
CA-38	Safe D	Hilda Solis99%	Hilda Solis97%	2.0 pts	Odds →
CA-39	Safe D	Mark Takano97%	Mark Takano96%	1.0 pts	Odds →
CA-40	Toss-up	Ken Calvert54%	Not listed	—	Odds →
CA-41	Safe D	Linda Sánchez94%	Linda Sánchez96%	1.9 pts	Odds →
CA-42	Safe D	Robert Garcia96%	Robert Garcia97%	0.1 pts	Odds →
CA-43	Safe D	Maxine Waters98%	Maxine Waters96%	2.3 pts	Odds →
CA-44	Safe D	Not listed	Nanette Barragán97%	—	Odds →
CA-45	Safe D	Derek Tran94%	Derek Tran95%	1.0 pts	Odds →
CA-46	Safe D	Lou Correa98%	Lou Correa96%	2.1 pts	Odds →
CA-47	Safe D	Dave Min95%	Dave Min94%	0.6 pts	Odds →
CA-48	Safe D	Marni von Wilpert92%	Marni von Wilpert94%	1.1 pts	Odds →
CA-49	Safe D	Mike Levin97%	Mike Levin96%	0.9 pts	Odds →
CA-50	Safe D	Scott Peters98%	Scott Peters96%	1.2 pts	Odds →
CA-51	Safe D	Not listed	Sara Jacobs97%	—	Odds →
CA-52	Safe D	Juan Vargas98%	Juan Vargas97%	0.8 pts	Odds →

California midterms: common questions

Who will win the California governor race in 2026?

Xavier Becerra (Democrat) is favoured to win the California governor race, at 97% on Kalshi and 97% on Polymarket.

Which California House races are competitive in 2026?

Prediction markets rate CA-40 as toss-up or lean races.