Texas Senate
FlipLean D
Kalshi
- James Talarico68%
- Ken Paxton33%
Polymarket
- James Talarico68%
- Ken Paxton33%
Venue gap 0.5 ptsCompare odds →
2026 midterms · Texas
Texas 2026 Election Odds
Live Kalshi and Polymarket odds for Texas's 2026 races — Senate and governor and 38 House districts. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Texas Governor
Lean RKalshi
- Greg Abbott65%
- Gina Hinojosa35%
Polymarket
- Greg Abbott65%
- Gina Hinojosa36%
Venue gap 0.3 ptsCompare odds →
Texas House races
Every Texas district with a market on either venue.
| District | Rating | Kalshi favourite | Polymarket favourite | Gap | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-01 | Safe R | Nathaniel Moran97% | Nathaniel Moran97% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| TX-02 | Safe R | Steve Toth93% | Steve Toth93% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| TX-03 | Safe R | Keith Self95% | Keith Self96% | 0.7 pts | Odds → |
| TX-04 | Safe R | Pat Fallon96% | Pat Fallon96% | 0.2 pts | Odds → |
| TX-05 | Safe R | Lance Gooden97% | Lance Gooden97% | 0.4 pts | Odds → |
| TX-06 | Safe R | Jake Ellzey98% | Jake Ellzey99.8% | 1.8 pts | Odds → |
| TX-07 | Safe D | Lizzie Fletcher97% | Lizzie Fletcher96% | 0.9 pts | Odds → |
| TX-08 | Safe R | Jessica Steinmann96% | Jessica Hart Steinmann95% | 1.4 pts | Odds → |
| TX-09 | Likely R | Alex Mealer84% | Alex Mealer84% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| TX-10 | Safe R | Chris Gober91% | Chris Gober91% | 0.9 pts | Odds → |
| TX-11 | Safe R | August Pfluger97% | August Pfluger97% | 0.2 pts | Odds → |
| TX-12 | Safe R | Craig Goldman94% | Craig Goldman95% | 1.5 pts | Odds → |
| TX-13 | Safe R | Ronny Jackson98% | Ronny Jackson97% | 0.2 pts | Odds → |
| TX-14 | Safe R | Randy Weber96% | Randy Weber96% | 0.1 pts | Odds → |
| TX-15 | Likely D | Bobby Pulido88% | Bobby Pulido86% | 2.5 pts | Odds → |
| TX-16 | Safe D | Not listed | Veronica Escobar97% | — | Odds → |
| TX-17 | Safe R | Pete Sessions97% | Pete Sessions97% | 0.2 pts | Odds → |
| TX-18 | Safe D | Christian Menefee97% | Christian Menefee98% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| TX-19 | Safe R | Tom Sell95% | Tom Sell97% | 2.1 pts | Odds → |
| TX-20 | Safe D | Joaquin Castro97% | Joaquin Castro97% | 0.3 pts | Odds → |
| TX-21 | Safe R | Mark Teixeira96% | Mark Teixeira95% | 0.6 pts | Odds → |
| TX-22 | Safe R | Trever Nehls96% | Trever Nehls95% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| TX-23 | Lean R | Brandon Herrera65% | Brandon Herrera66% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| TX-24 | Safe R | Beth Van Duyne95% | Beth Van Duyne96% | 0.4 pts | Odds → |
| TX-25 | Safe R | Roger Williams97% | Roger Williams96% | 1.1 pts | Odds → |
| TX-26 | Safe R | Brandon Gill96% | Brandon Gill95% | 1.1 pts | Odds → |
| TX-27 | Safe R | Michael Cloud96% | Michael Cloud95% | 0.6 pts | Odds → |
| TX-28 | Safe D | Henry Cuellar92% | Henry Cuellar92% | 0.7 pts | Odds → |
| TX-29 | Safe D | Sylvia Garcia96% | Sylvia Garcia97% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| TX-30 | Safe D | Frederick Haynes III99% | Frederick Haynes III97% | 1.9 pts | Odds → |
| TX-31 | Safe R | John Carter94% | John Carter95% | 1.0 pts | Odds → |
| TX-32 | Likely R | Jace Yarbrough88% | Jace Yarbrough88% | 0.5 pts | Odds → |
| TX-33 | Safe D | Colin Allred99% | Colin Allred97% | 2.2 pts | Odds → |
| TX-34 | Likely D | Vicente Gonzalez84% | Vicente Gonzalez82% | 2.0 pts | Odds → |
| TX-35 | Lean D | Johnny C. Garcia67% | Johnny Garcia65% | 2.5 pts | Odds → |
| TX-36 | Safe R | Brian Babin96% | Brian Babin95% | 1.5 pts | Odds → |
| TX-37 | Safe D | Greg Casar95% | Greg Casar98% | 2.4 pts | Odds → |
| TX-38 | Safe R | Jon Bonck97% | Jon Bonck97% | 0.1 pts | Odds → |
Texas midterms: common questions
- Who will win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
- James Talarico (Democrat) is favoured to win the Texas Senate race, at 68% on Kalshi and 68% on Polymarket.
- Who will win the Texas governor race in 2026?
- Greg Abbott (Republican) is favoured to win the Texas governor race, at 65% on Kalshi and 65% on Polymarket.
- Which Texas House races are competitive in 2026?
- Prediction markets rate TX-23, TX-35 as toss-up or lean races.