The Prediction Markets

334: Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit

Starts in 10 daysKickoff
Traded
$169K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Ciryl Gane 68%

Next is Fight won by KO/TKO? at 58.5%. The venues differ most on Josh Hokit (Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 34%), a 3.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ciryl Gane
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ciryl Gane
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fight won by KO/TKO?
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 4?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 4?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 5?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 5?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 18 more outcomes
Gane in Round 1
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gane in Round 1
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gane in Round 2
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gane in Round 2
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gane in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gane in Round 3
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gane in Round 4
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gane in Round 4
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gane in Round 5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gane in Round 5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gane to win by KO/TKO?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gane to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hokit in Round 1
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hokit in Round 1
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hokit in Round 2
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hokit in Round 2
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hokit in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hokit in Round 3
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hokit in Round 4
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hokit in Round 4
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hokit in Round 5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hokit in Round 5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hokit to win by KO/TKO?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hokit to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 0.5 Rounds
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 3.5 Rounds
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 3.5 Rounds
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 4.5 Rounds
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 4.5 Rounds
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Hokit
33.1%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 34%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Hokit
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$98K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 31¢ and selling on Kalshi at 33¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Indicative gap, prices are 5 min old: Josh Hokit asks 31¢ on Polymarket and bids 33¢ on Kalshi (200 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, DAZN, Tapology
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Nov 15, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 17, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ciryl Gane
  • Fight won by KO/TKO?
  • Decision or Draw

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ciryl Gane for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "334: Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit". Ciryl Gane leads at 68%. Next is Fight won by KO/TKO? at 58.5%. $169K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets
334: Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets