The Prediction Markets

Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz: Total Games

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Over 15.5 games 93%

Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz at 75%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Over 15.5 games
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Over 15.5 games
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
75%
Polymarket 75%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$91
Trade this on Polymarket
Over 20.5 games
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Over 20.5 games
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 Winner
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 21.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Completed Match
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 22.5
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 23.5
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Over 25.5 games
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Over 25.5 games
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 Winner
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Over 15.5 games
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Over 15.5 games for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz: Total Games". Over 15.5 games leads at 93%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz at 75%. $11K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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