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What the markets expect
Over 18.5 games 89%
Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz at 74%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Over 18.5 games89%Not listed89%86¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 3 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Over 18.5 games89%Kalshi 89%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Over 18.5 games
89%
Not listed
89%
86¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Over 18.5 games
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 18.5 games
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $3
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5”74%74%50¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed98¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz74%Polymarket 74%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5”
74%
74%
50¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
98¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5”74%74%50¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed98¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz74%Polymarket 74%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5”
74%
74%
50¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
98¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5”69.5%69.5%66¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed74¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $135 (1.35x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz69.5%Polymarket 69.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5”
69.5%
69.5%
66¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
74¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
- Last price
- 69.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5”60%60%58¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed62¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $161 (1.61x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz60%Polymarket 60%polled, just nowBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5”
60%
60%
58¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
62¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, just nowBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
- Volume
- $32
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz54.5%54.5%54¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz54.5%Polymarket 54.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
54.5%
54.5%
54¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
- Last price
- 54.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $18K
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner”53.5%53.5%51¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed56¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz53.5%Polymarket 53.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner”
53.5%
53.5%
51¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
56¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner
- Last price
- 53.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner”53%53%52¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed54¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $185 (1.85x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz53%Polymarket 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner”
53%
53%
52¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
54¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Game Spread +/-0.5”51.5%51.5%51¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed52¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $192 (1.92x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz51.5%Polymarket 51.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Game Spread +/-0.5”
51.5%
51.5%
51¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
52¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Game Spread +/-0.5
- Last price
- 51.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $10
Completed Match51%51%8¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed94¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Completed Match51%Polymarket 51%polled, just nowBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Completed Match
51%
51%
8¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
94¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Completed Match
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, just nowBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Completed Match
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $219
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Over 23.5 games51%Not listed51%50¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 3 min ago51¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Over 23.5 games51%Kalshi 51%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Over 23.5 games
51%
Not listed
51%
50¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
51¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Over 23.5 games
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 23.5 games
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $1K
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5”51%51%50¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed52¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $192 (1.92x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz51%Polymarket 51%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5”
51%
51%
50¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
52¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5
- Last price
- 51%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $31
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5”49%49%— bid, 98¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed98¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz49%Polymarket 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5”
49%
49%
— bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
98¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5”49%49%— bid, 98¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed98¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz49%Polymarket 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5”
49%
49%
— bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
98¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5”49%49%— bid, 98¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed98¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz49%Polymarket 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5”
49%
49%
— bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
98¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5”42%42%41¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed43¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz42%Polymarket 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5”
42%
42%
41¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
43¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5”41%41%40¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed42¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $238 (2.38x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz41%Polymarket 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5”
41%
41%
40¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
42¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
Over 28.5 games36%Not listed36%35¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 3 min ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Over 28.5 games36%Kalshi 36%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Over 28.5 games
36%
Not listed
36%
35¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Over 28.5 games
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 28.5 games
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $8
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor FritzPolymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set Handicap +/-1.5”26%26%25¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed27¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz26%Polymarket 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Polymarket: “Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set Handicap +/-1.5”
26%
26%
25¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
27¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz Set Handicap +/-1.5
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $5
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Over 18.5 games
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
- Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Over 18.5 games for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz: Total Games". Over 18.5 games leads at 89%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Taylor Fritz at 74%. $20K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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