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What the markets expect
Aryna Sabalenka 66%
Next is WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova at 64.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Aryna Sabalenka66%Not listed66%64¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 1 min ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)Aryna Sabalenka66%Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Aryna Sabalenka
66%
Not listed
66%
64¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Aryna Sabalenka
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aryna Sabalenka
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $1K
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova64.5%64.5%64¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed65¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $154 (1.54x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova64.5%Polymarket 64.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
64.5%
64.5%
64¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
65¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
- Last price
- 64.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $2K
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 1 Winner”61%61%60¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed62¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $161 (1.61x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova61%Polymarket 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 1 Winner”
61%
61%
60¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
62¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 1 Winner
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 21.5”57%57%56¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova57%Polymarket 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 21.5”
57%
57%
56¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 21.5
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $10
Completed Match55%55%10¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNot listedNo askCompleted Match55%Polymarket 55%polled, 1 min ago
Completed Match
55%
55%
10¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
No ask
Completed Match
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Completed Match
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Game Spread +/-2.5”54%54%53¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova54%Polymarket 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Game Spread +/-2.5”
54%
54%
53¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Game Spread +/-2.5
- Last price
- 54%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 22.5”52.5%52.5%52¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed53¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $189 (1.89x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova52.5%Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 22.5”
52.5%
52.5%
52¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
53¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 22.5
- Last price
- 52.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $189
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 2 Winner”50%50%1¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed99¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova50%Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 2 Winner”
50%
50%
1¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
99¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 2 Winner
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 23.5”47%47%46¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova47%Polymarket 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 23.5”
47%
47%
46¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 23.5
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Total Sets: O/U 2.5”43%43%42¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed44¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $227 (2.27x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova43%Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Total Sets: O/U 2.5”
43%
43%
42¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
44¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Total Sets: O/U 2.5
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $5
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set Handicap +/-1.5”39.5%39.5%38¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed41¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $244 (2.44x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova39.5%Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set Handicap +/-1.5”
39.5%
39.5%
38¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
41¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set Handicap +/-1.5
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $3
Karolina Muchova36%Not listed36%34¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 1 min ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Karolina Muchova36%Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Karolina Muchova
36%
Not listed
36%
34¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Karolina Muchova
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Karolina Muchova
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $217
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: wtatennis.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: WTA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Aryna Sabalenka
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Aryna Sabalenka for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova". Aryna Sabalenka leads at 66%. Next is WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova at 64.5%. $3K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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