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What the markets expect
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova 67.5%
Next is WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova at 62.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Total Sets: O/U 2.5”67.5%67.5%35¢ bid, — askpolled, 17s agoNot listedNo askWTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova67.5%Polymarket 67.5%polled, 17s ago
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Total Sets: O/U 2.5”
67.5%
67.5%
35¢ bid, — ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
No ask
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 17s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Total Sets: O/U 2.5
- Last price
- 67.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- Volume
- $780
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova62.5%62.5%62¢ bid, 63¢ askpolled, 17s agoNot listed63¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $159 (1.59x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova62.5%Polymarket 62.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
62.5%
62.5%
62¢ bid, 63¢ ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
63¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $159 (1.59x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
- Last price
- 62.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 63¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $159 (1.59x)
- Volume
- $68K
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 22.5”60%60%49¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 17s agoNot listed71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova60%Polymarket 60%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 22.5”
60%
60%
49¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 22.5
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $468
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 1 Winner”59%59%56¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 17s agoNot listed62¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $161 (1.61x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova59%Polymarket 59%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 1 Winner”
59%
59%
56¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
62¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 1 Winner
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
- Volume
- $3K
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 2 Winner”58.5%58.5%56¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 17s agoNot listed61¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $164 (1.64x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova58.5%Polymarket 58.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 2 Winner”
58.5%
58.5%
56¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
61¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set 2 Winner
- Last price
- 58.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $40
Aryna Sabalenka57%Not listed57%56¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 5 min ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Aryna Sabalenka57%Kalshi 57%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Aryna Sabalenka
57%
Not listed
57%
56¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Aryna Sabalenka
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aryna Sabalenka
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $725
Completed Match55%55%10¢ bid, — askpolled, 17s agoNot listedNo askCompleted Match55%Polymarket 55%polled, 17s ago
Completed Match
55%
55%
10¢ bid, — ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
No ask
Completed Match
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 17s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Completed Match
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- Volume
- $60
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 23.5”51.5%51.5%31¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 17s agoNot listed72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova51.5%Polymarket 51.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 23.5”
51.5%
51.5%
31¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 23.5
- Last price
- 51.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Game Spread +/-2.5”50%50%1¢ bid, — askpolled, 17s agoNot listedNo askWTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova50%Polymarket 50%polled, 17s ago
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Game Spread +/-2.5”
50%
50%
1¢ bid, — ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
No ask
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 17s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Game Spread +/-2.5
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- Volume
- $4K
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 21.5”47%47%59¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 17s agoNot listed94¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $106 (1.06x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova47%Polymarket 47%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 21.5”
47%
47%
59¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
94¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 21.5
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $1K
Karolina Muchova44%Not listed44%43¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 5 min ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Karolina Muchova44%Kalshi 44%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Karolina Muchova
44%
Not listed
44%
43¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Karolina Muchova
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Karolina Muchova
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $583
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaPolymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set Handicap +/-1.5”29%29%5¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 17s agoNot listed53¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $189 (1.89x)WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova29%Polymarket 29%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Polymarket: “WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set Handicap +/-1.5”
29%
29%
5¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 17s ago
Not listed
53¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Set Handicap +/-1.5
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $11K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: wtatennis.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: WTA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
- WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova: Set 2 Winner". WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova leads at 67.5%. Next is WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova at 62.5%. $89K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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